Cincinnati Reds Preview #1

As a huge baseball fan, I simply can't wait for the upcoming season to begin.  As we move closer to Opening Day I will attempt to write some small articles on different pieces of the teams I follow.  Here is my first installment.  Please let me know what you think:

The Cincinnati Reds showed signs of life in what was supposed to be a dreary and hard to watch 2016 season.

Players like Adam Duvall and Jose Peraza helped give Reds fans a glimmer of hope for the future and future Hall of Fame 1^st baseman Joey Votto showed that he is not ready to call it quits just yet.

A lot of every day fans of the team may have been scratching their heads after the trade of Dan Straily, who lead the team last season in wins; strikeouts as well as innings pitched.  Admittedly I was a little taken a-back when I first heard the news as well.  That being said, once I heard the haul they got in return, I was absolutely thrilled.

In return for the veteran Straily the Reds picked up right-handed pitching prospects Luis Castillo and Austin Brice from the Miami Marlins along with outfielder Isaiah White.

Castillo, the highlight of the package Cincinnati received, was rated as Miami’s number 5 prospect according MLB.com and has been known to hit triple digits with his blazing fastball.

To fill the spot in the rotation that once belonged to the aforementioned Straily the Reds promptly went out and signed veteran free agent pitcher Scott Feldman.

Feldman, who split time between the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays, is nearly a .500 pitcher for his career and should be able to slide into the back end of the Cincinnati rotation and give the 

 Reds a veteran presence to help bring along some of his younger teammates.

The rotation still has some question marks for the 2017 season but holds an abundance of potential if the returning members can stay healthy and improve on last year’s efforts.

Anthony DeSclafani had a breakout season in 2016 and should, in my opinion, get the ball for Opening Day.   DeSclafani is followed by a returning Homer Bailey who is hoping to be ready for Spring Training this year.

After Bailey things start to get a little questionable.

Brandon Finnegan showed some flashes of brilliance last season but when he was bad, he was very bad.  I still believe he is better suited for the back-end of the bullpen, but that is an argument for another day.

Cody Reed could use a little more seasoning but each time they have sent him to AAA Louisville he has absolutely dominated the competition.  He has to find a way to transition that ability to the majors and find a way to get big league hitters out consistently.

Cincinnati also has two bright prospects in the minors that could make their mark on the big league squad sooner rather than later.

Both Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett have the kind of ability that could eventually see them as the #1 and #2 starters on this team for many years to come.  Combining those two with the newly acquired Luis Castillo and Cincinnati fans have a lot to be excited about in terms of the future rotation possibilities.

 

Thursday night 4 game slates - throw a dart and try not to hurt yourself

After a couple break even nights in a row (breaking even is like winning, right?) it's time for a very unexciting four game Thursday night slate.

How does one attack a slate when the best DFS player in the league, Russell Westbrook, is involved in a game with an O/U south of 200?

How many Dallas Maverick players are too many Dallas Maverick players?

TNT -- I appreciate you wanting to show us how good Westbrook is, but seriously, this is the game you're making us watch tonight?

Anyway, onto my teams.  I decided to play a few more cash games tonight, so we'll go with that lineup:

PG: Eric Bledsoe - Suns: Against my better judgement, I decided to avoid Westbrook in my cash game lineups tonight.  Usually he's a staple of my team when playing cash, but I ended up going a different route tonight.  With the O/U of the Suns and Nuggets game tonight being in the 230 range, I decided to load up on a few pieces from that game.  Bledsoe has been on fire recently and I decided to pivot away from Russell and give Eric a shot tonight instead.

SG: Devin Booker - Suns: As mentioned, this game's over under was pretty big and Booker has been one of the hottest players in the league lately.  He is quite scoring dependent but he has consistently been producing of late and I don't see that stopping tonight.  Gary Harris DEF worries me a little, but I have faith that Devin should be able to reach value pretty easily.

SF: Justin Anderson - Mavericks: The Mavericks are kind of a MASH unit these days.  There will be several players from this team in my lineups tonight in both tournaments and cash as the key group should see plenty of minutes and chances to produce.  Anderson is a cheap option that looks to be gaining confidence with each minute he gets.  Facing a OKC team that doesn't overly focus on DEF and isn't exactly shooting the lights out these days - Anderson should have a chance to both score and steal some rebounds during this game.

PF: Darrell Arthur - Nuggets: A little bit of a gamble here, which I don't usually make in cash lineups, but Arthur has been very solid since coming back from injury.  The front court for Denver is a bit muddled so I have to hope they continue to give him 15-18 minutes and, at league minimum, it is not overly concerning but he could get a DNP at any time as we've seen from Mike Malone.

C: Tyson Chandler - Suns: Chandler has been producing at a $7200-$7300 range but is still sitting at $6800 as of today.  This may be one of the last nights I am able to justify rostering him for a while but I wanted to roll him out there tonight in this high total game.  a consistent 28-30 point player lately, he is exactly what I need to balance out my cash teams tonight.

G: Jameer Nelson - Nuggets: Other than one dud, Nelson has stepped into the starting role nicely since Mudiay went down with an injury.  Another player from the highest predicted total on the board tonight, Nelson is another player that may not flash huge upside but certainly shouldn't kill my team, barring disaster.

F: Karl Anthony-Towns - Timberwolves: KAT is an absolute monster and I try and fit him onto my teams any time I can.  It was a toss up on KAT or Jokic and my coin flip lead me to Towns (kidding).  I just think that Len and Chandler could get Jokic in some foul trouble tonight so I decided to pivot over to Towns as he is a solid 45-50 pt player night in and night out.   When fielding cash teams I like to try and stay as solid and predictable as possible.

UTL: Ricky Rubio - Timberwolves: I think Rubio was scared of being Wally Pipped.  Ricky went home for a game earlier this week and Kris Dunn had a monster night.  Needless to say, Rubio came right back to the team and deemed himself ready to go.  Jeff Teague defense really is nothing to scare me away from someone and this game is another of the higher totals of the night.  Rubio is able to put up solid fantasy nights without relying on scoring, and those are the kind of players I like.

In my tournaments I have shares of Pierre Jackson, Dwight Powell, Enes Kanter and Andrew Wiggins.

Good luck to everyone!  I hope your players stay out of foul trouble and don't decide to put up a dud tonight.

What a frustratingly fun night of NBA DFS

So close, yet so far away.

Last night was a perfect example of why it's difficult to put in a lineup early in the day and then actually expect that lineup to succeed to it's fullest potential.

As I sit scanning Twitter at around 6:30pm last night we get news that Kawhi Leonard was going to be sitting out the Spurs game last night vs the Nets.

"Yikes!"  I thought to myself.  "This changes everything!!"

Now I have to scramble through and remove Leonard from all of the teams that I currently had him on and, also, go back now and add in a couple Nets players because they have a better chance of keeping it close now.  All of the sudden Lopez was in play, Kilpatrick was in play, RHJ was in play.  Not only that, but now I need to add LaMarcus Aldridge to as many lineups as possible as his usage is off the charts with Kawhi sits!!

As I'm doing that I get the report that Anthony Davis is also out for the Pelicans.

"DRATS!!!!"

Now I have to make sure I didn't have him in any lineups (which I didn't) but now I have to make sure I get Jrue Holiday and Terrance Jones in some lineups as they are sure to get a huge up-tick in usage with out Brow on the court!

Unfortunately I, like most, didn't think the Pelicans would be able to keep the game close enough to warrant playing LeBron, Love or Kyrie so I faded those three (bad idea) and put my money elsewhere.

Jrue ended up being just 1.9% owned in the DK $4 $150,000 for first league while Jones was a smidge over 10%.

As the early games rolled through I had a couple teams doing decent but one team smashing.

Here was that lineup:

PG: Antetokounmpo (50.75 FPP) : With a high scoring match-up vs the Rockets in his sight, it was hard to go against the Greek Freak in this spot.  I figured he would get a bit over looked with all of the other stars on the slate.  He ended up being 20.7% owned and at $10,600 he got me nearly 5x, which I was fine with.

SG: Dellavedova (29.75 FPP) : Again, a high scoring match-up vs the Rockets and Delly remains in the starting lineup after a pretty solid showing in the Bucks last game.  At just $3,500 I thought he was an absolute lock on Monday night to at bare minimum reach value.  He ended up far exceeding my expectations and, at 11.1% owned, was just the kind of player needed in my GPPs to try and move up in the standings.

SF: Dion Waiters (48.75 FPP) : If they're going to keep his price under $6k and Miami continues to run him out there for over 30 minutes a game, Dion will be an insta-start in my lineups for a while, especially with Tyler Johnson out.  I felt he was a must start at $5,700 as his minutes and production continues to improve since coming back from injury.  Of course, I didn't expect him to put up almost 50, but I really thought he was a very safe play for that price tag.  I was very excited to see he was only 18.5% owned!

PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (42.25 FPP):  Man oh man.  Thanks, Brooklyn, for your efforts on Monday...   LMA will be in my lineup any time Leonard is out.  That is just facts.  At $6,900 he needed just 35 FPP to reach 5x and I figured he was a mortal lock for that tonight vs a Nets team that clearly hates playing defense.  Unfortunately this game turned into a blow out and he only played 27 minutes.  At 25.8% ownership he was my highest owned player, but I still would've liked for that game to stay close so that he saw some 4th quarter action, darn it.

C:  Clint Capela (21.25 FPP): Here is another player who is seeing a little more production as his minutes continue to increase after coming back from injury.  To be fair, this was a total "dart" as they announced he would be starting, which always makes me interested and, even more intriguing, Miles Plumlee was starting for the Bucks.  My thought was that Capela would be able to out rebound the former Dukie thus giving him a very good chance of hitting value just based on peripheral stats and hopefully find a tip back basket or 5 to get up to 30 FPP.  Unfortunately this did not play out the way I'd hoped.  He ended with 21 FPP which, at $4,000, was still 5x on his salary but I fully expected him to reach 25+ and at just 8.5% owned I was really pulling for him Monday night.

G: Jrue Holiday (67.5 FPP):  As mentioned, the moment that I heard Davis was out I swapped Holiday into as many teams as I could as quickly as I could.  His numbers have been down lately, which is likely what helped contribute to him being just 1.9% owned, but I was ok rolling the dice on him going up against Kyrie defense.  Needless to say he far out performed my expectations as he put up that magical 9x number we always dream about.  Thanks Jrue,

F: Terrence Jones (63.75 FPP):  Did someone say 9x?  Mr. Jones will see your 9x and raise you one more.  At just $6,200 ended up getting 10x, which is what you need in order to take down a GPP.  Especially since he was just 10% owned.  The fear, of course, was that the Pelicans would get blown out and none of the starters would play their full allotment of minutes or that Alvin Gentry would simply come up with some crazy lineup changes that left everyone scratching their head ... which has been known to occur.  I was willing to take that chance, however, as Jones has proven to be a great DFS player when actually given minutes, so he was worth the risk and it certainly paid off.

UTL: Thaddeus Young (19.75 FPP):  Well, drats.  Thad is a very streaky player that, when going good, is an insta-start for me.  After scoring over 30 FPP in 4 of his last 6 games, I thought he was worth a shot at $5,500 vs an average rebounding team such as the Knicks.  My theory was he would be able to rebound a lot of the bricks that were put up on both sides, as neither of these teams really jump off the chart when it comes to FG%.  Unfortunately he got in foul trouble early and then Myles Turner took over the game, leaving Thad in a comfy position on the bench cheering on his team for long stretches of time.  He ended up getting 31 minutes, which is encouraging, but with the foul trouble he was not able to be as aggressive as he usually is thus limiting his fantasy potential.

Oh well.  It was fun while it lasted and I was feeling pretty good about my teams with about 100 minutes left for my squad but it just didn't pan out the way I hoped.

Maybe next time.

Thanks for reading.  Feel free to leave comments below!

Wednesday NBA DFS and how horrible it went

Another frustrating night of DFS is about in the books and it can't end fast enough.

I only played a handful of teams tonight but it was enough to fry my brain a bit ... but I guess that really doesn't take much.

The Good or Not Horrible

In what is almost an insta-start for me, Kemba Walker playing at home vs Lillard DEF was a lock on almost every roster I had tonight.   Lillard isn't known as much of a defender and I figured they would leave McCollum to try and match up with Batum so Kemba could have his way tonight.

He didn't exactly crush value, as he was $7,700, but he got to that magic 5x area I like finishing with 40.5 DK points.  Not a bad way to start my lineups, as he certainly was the anchor on nearly all of them.

Darren Collison played some pretty good ball with Ty Lawson was out a few weeks ago and, with Lawson questionable leading up to the game, I went ahead and fired Darren out into over 1/2 of my lineups tonight.   Just before the game, but after the roster lock of the early games, Lawson was ruled out and helped my this pick look a little better.  At $5,300 he needs 28 to reach the 5x level I like and, as I write this, he as 19.5 at half so that shouldn't be too hard for him to reach.

Montrezl Harrell is a high energy guy that I absolutely love when he's going to get minutes vs a big man that isn't a dominant presence like a Cousins, Towns, Gobert, etc.   Tonight he faced the Bucks who would be using Greg Monroe and John Henson and shortly before roster lock it was announced that Harrell would be starting over Capella.  That was all I needed to hear to fire him out in a few lineups tonight and he did not disappoint as he ended with 37 DK pts at just $5,100.

There were other guys that I had sporadically throughout the rest of my teams such as Batum, Beasley, Kuzminskas, Lowry and Aminu who all put up solid nights for my teams.

That being said, they couldn't pick up the slack of my two huge duds of the night.  There were two popular "cheap-ish" centers tonight and I wanted to start them both on my teams, using the C slot for one and the UTL slot for the other, but thought better of it.  Instead, I decided to split them up evenly across almost all of my teams as "there's no way they both bust tonight, right?"

The HORRIBLE

Kyle O'Quinn is likely one of the most hated men in the DFS universe tonight.  A super popular pick, which should've been reason enough for me to fade him, O'Quinn jumped to the top of everyone's value chart the second that Noah was ruled out tonight for the Knicks.   Being that he has shown flashes of brilliance during a number of his starts tonight he was an almost "must play" in many people's eyes tonight, including mine.  4.75 DK points later and I'm cursing at my computer, the TV, O'Quinn, Spike Lee and anything else related to the Knicks.   How someone that has flashed 40 point upside on multiple occasions could get 4.75 pts and get just 10 minutes in a start is mind-blowing.

And, on the other side of the ball we have

Kelly Olynyk of the Celtics.  Coming off 7 straight games of 20 or more DK pts and putting up 44 and 34 in his last two outings, Olynyk was in a prime spot to crush value again tonight against the hapless Knicks.   As baffling as it is that O'Quinn only played 10 minutes tonight it is complete insanity that Kelly was given only 13 minutes for Boston tonight.  Now, I get it, I know, Amir Johnson played great for the Celts and cut into his time, just like Hernangomez played great cutting into O'Quinn's time but with the recent track-record of Olynyk one would think he would get a little more rope to hang himself with before yanking him off the floor.  Apparently not.  Ending with just 9 pts the majority of my rosters were dead once the final buzzer went off in this game.

Again, in retrospect I should've likely looked elsewhere as these two guys were certainly going to be high owned and that's not the best way to attack tournaments but never did I expect them both to tank this bad.

Well, live and learn, right? 

Bradley Open Saturday Qualifying 1/14/17

This was my first time bowling the Bradley in several years, but you kind of know what to expect when you go there and that is SUPER slick lanes and a lot of spare shooting.

You must come into this tournament with a level head, know you are likely not going to put up any huge games and be mentally prepared for a grind to the fullest extent.

Unfortunately I had been sick for the month leading up to this event and, prior to the sweeper event on Friday night, had only bowled three games since the Holiday Doubles which was back on December 17th.   I refused to let that be an excuse and buckled in for what I knew would be a long 5 games of bowling Saturday morning.

During practice I tried my Columbia300 Tyrant that was at 500 grit, my Track Cyborg that was at 500 grit and my Hammer Phobia that I hit with a 1000 pad during practice.   After our 15 minutes of practice had been completed I was in full panic mode, as I hadn't even come close to hitting the pocket and had absolutely no idea how to attack the lanes to being the day.

I decided to try and take my Cyborg and just trap the headpin until I got comfortable and, well, I failed miserably at doing it.   My first ball of the event I missed a little up the lane and it never hooked, leaving a 3-6-7-9 to start.  Needless to say, I wasn't able to create enough angle down lane to make it but got my count and moved onto the next frame, which wasn't much better.    I moved my feet another 2 left but kept my target the same, aced it, 4-6-10...

18 in the second, when you know you're not going to be able to string together strikes, is not exactly how you want to get out of the gate.   I kept fishing around and managed to mix in a double and stayed clean for 182.   Trust me when I saw I was VERY happy to get off that pair without digging a bigger hole to start my day.

I moved to the next pair and decided to stay with the same plan of attack and things managed to get worse.  I started x,  high flush 8 pin (twister pins) spare,  x, high flush 8 pin (twister pins) flag it.

Noooo!   Again, this is going to be a grind, missing single pins is flat out unacceptable.

The next few frames were a combination of horrid shot making and worse decision making leading to a strike followed by a 3-7 split (spared), missing the headpin and leaving the 1-3 (spared), missing the headpin leaving the 1-3-6-9 and missing it before leaving another high flush 8 pin in the 10th for 170.

Two games in, 48 under and not in the cut.   Consider me crabby at this point.

On the way to my pair for the third game I thought to myself "wait, you're having all sorts of troubles getting your ball to shape at all ... why are you throwing a pin up ball?   Why not use something pin down so that it can at least try to see the front part of the lane and smooths out the back rather than the "reaction" I had seen the first two games where it went dead straight if I missed left or up the lane, but snapped high if I grabbed it too much or missed in."

So game 3, based on what I learned Friday night and knowing I needed to trust my gut more, I started with the pin up Cyborg again rather than making the switch to begin the game.   After a high flush 8 pin in the first frame, strike in the second following by a 5 count washout and a 3-7-9, it was time to make the change.

In the 5th frame I grabbed my Ebonite Mission Unknown, which has a 2" pin and is pin under the ring finger , that I had hit it with a 500 pad that morning before we started.  I proceeded to throw a triple before juicing one up a bit and leaving a 3-9 in the 8th.  I struck again in the 9th but left a really good 7 pin in the 9th and ending with 192.

After game 3 I had moved into the cut, but just barely.  I had a lot of work to do these next two games.

Game 4 was much of the same that I had seen all morning.  Started with a strike but missed the headpin in the second (1-3-9 spare), weak 7 pin in the 3rd (spare),  half-pocket 7-10 in the 4th, strike in the 5th,  3-5-6 in the 6th, chopped it.   Needless to say, at this point, I was in fry mode.   I am pretty sure this is when I made a Facebook post that read: "Sizzle Sizzle Pop Boom" and then text Matt Sanders and Brett Shepherd to let them know that it wasn't looking good for me to make the first cut and needed to figure something out quick or I wouldn't be bowling Saturday night.   I stayed clean the rest of that game and ended with 180, leaving me a little ahead of the cutline with one game to go.

Knowing I likely needed somewhere around 180 or above to feel somewhat safe about securing my spot into the second round my idea was to just stay close to the pocket, make some spares, survive this cut and then try and figure out some sort of magic reaction later that night in the second round.

First frame that game plan went right out the window as my ball actually hooked a bit in the front and went high for a 2-4-7-8, which I promptly chopped.  Awesome.

I made just a little move with my feet but also brought my index finger in a little closer and tilted my right foot a little more right so that I ensured my first step was in the direction I wanted and tossed the next three strikes followed by a 5 count washout.   Seemed every time I had a double or triple my next should would be just fast enough that it would hydroplane right past the spot.

After that frame I was able to strike in the 6th, nine spare in the 7th, strike in the 8th and nine spare in the 9th giving myself a chance to mark in the 10th and feel good about my spot, which fortunately I did by throwing a double and ending with 199, thus securing my spot into the next round.

It was a complete mental and physical grind, which was expected.  Based on what I felt I had that morning combined with my suspect spare shooting and shot making, I was less than excited or confident in my chances heading into Saturday night.

That being said, I never give up, ever, and I was determined to figure out something.   Whether or not my determination would help my shot making was a whole other argument.

#TeamEBI  #InfuseYourGame

Bradley Open Doubles Tournament - 1/13/17

The Bradley Open in Lexington KY typically has a singles sweeper on Friday night on their league pattern before the main event.  This year they opted to do a doubles event instead, and it went over like hotcakes.

I believe they had 85 (give or take) doubles teams participate this year on a "modified" league pattern and the event was very well received.  Each team bowled 4 regular games before cutting the field to the top 8 teams for a bracket final.

Matt Sanders (Track staff member and fellow lefty) was nice enough to partner up with me in this one and we always find a way to have fun when bowling together.   This tournament was no exception.

Game 1:   Never really got comfortable in practice and was in between which ball to use, as nothing really jumped out at me and looked amazing.   Ended up going with my Ebonite GameBreaker 2 Phenom Pearl and started 8/9/ x 8/ before rattling off a 4 bagger  into the 10th where I left a pretty good 7 pin and ended with 236.   Matt had some carry issues throughout the game (darn twister pins) and ended up with 212.

Game 2:  Started out slow again with x 8/ 8/ 9/ 8/ before making a small change with my hand to try and get up the back of it a bit more and moved up on the approach and switched to 4 steps to slow my swing down and struck out for 245.   Matt got dialed in that game and shot 247 giving us 492 and moving us into the top 10 overall.

Game 3: This game was a struggle for me and lead to a bigger issue later.   I started with a strike before missing one a little left that never hooked and 3-7-9'd.   I made a little adjustment off of that and threw a 4 bagger before catching one a little too clean for a big 4.  I told Matt at that point that I felt like I should switch to my original GB2 but really hadn't thrown it with my new Phenom Pearl so I wasn't 100% sure what it would do in comparison, so I was a little gun shy on making the move.    Instead, I moved a little and left a 6 pin, then struck in the 9th before leaving a ringing 7 in the 10th.  Because I'm a dope, instead of switching to the GB2 on the fill, I decided to try moving a little with the Phenom Pearl and struck for 200 even.  Matt, again, bowled 247 giving us 447 and dropping us out of the top 10.

Game 4: I started this game off with the Phenom Pearl again and went bucket, 3-9, weak 7 out of the gate.  Brett Shepherd came down and I got his opinion on if I should change, which he agreed that it was likely the best idea.   Because I'm hard headed, however, I tried one more ball with the Pearl and weak 7'd again and decided enough was enough.  It was clear that the shiny pearl ball was just stopping down lane because the backs had tightened up so much and I needed something that could get started a little quicker so that I wasn't relying so much on the downlane hook.   Frame 5 I changed to the GameBreaker2 and promptly tossed the next 5 strikes...  Drats!    Heading into the 10th frame I felt that if either of us struck out we had a real chance of making the top 8.   Matt made a really good shot but left a 7 pin, so it left it all square on my shoulders.   I stepped up and made, what I thought, was my best shot of the game but apparently I either caught it too clean or just missed a move (we did have 5 lefties on our pair) and the ball checked up a little too much for a 6 pin.   Matt ended up with 237 and I had 235 to end our qualifying with 472 and +250 for the 8 total games.

We gathered up all of our equipment and patiently waited for the cut score, assuming we were out, but crossing our fingers that we get lucky.

Finally they make the announcement "bowlers we have tabulated all of the scores and the score to make the top 8 was +265.  Finishing in 9th place were Matt Sanders and Chris Hester."

Ugh.

Obviously there are several spots over the course of 4 games where you can find 15 pins, but I can't help but think "what if I would've changed balls sooner?"   Clearly I needed to change but I second guessed myself and kept trying to tinker with hand positions and speed changes to get the ball to square up rather than just making the necessary change.

Frustrating as I feel my stubbornness and lack of preparation cost us the cut, and that's not fair to Matt.

Hopefully he gives me another chance to make up for that mistake.  We are bowling the Prop Cup Doubles Event in July, but hopefully we can find an event or two before then to get more practice in together.

Overall we had a good night, got close to the cut with both of us having a "so-so" game, and made a few bucks.   I enjoy competing in team and doubles events, so it was a fun evening for me!

Thanks for reading

#TeamEBI  #InfuseYourGame

Thursday 1/12 DFS NBA contest - Viva La Mexico?

One of the games I like the most is being played in Mexico tonight, and that scares me.  I loved Dirk until I started doing a little research on games played there and now I'm fading most of the guys in that game, save one.

Here is my locked in lineup:

PG: Jrue Holiday - $7,000 - Pelicans: As soon as Anthony Davis went out  I locked Jrue into all of my lineups - though I fully assume and expect he and Terrence Jones to be the chalk from that game.  Holiday was already on my board as he continues to impress but he really has no choice but to go big in tonight's game vs the hapless Nets.

SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - $5,900 - Pistons: KCP was the last player I inserted into my lineups tonight, as I don't LOVE his match-up tonight, but at under $6k I felt he has a very good chance of hitting value.  In what should be an up-tempo game this kind of "do it all" guy should be able to fill several slots in the box.

SF: Carmelo Anthony - $7,300 - Knicks: I never feel good about rostering Melo, but with Porzingis out and no Jimmy Butler playing DEF he turned into almost a "Must start" player tonight.  In a match-up vs his buddy D Wade and in a spot where  the Knicks will likely want to get a win on their home court a night after dropping a heart breaker to the Sixers, I look for Carmelo to put up 55+ tonight.  Call me crazy...

PF: Terrence Jones - $6,000 - Pelicans: As I mentioned, with Davis out, Jones was an insta-start.  When he gets minutes he produces at a high fantasy level.  He should see all of the minutes he can stand tonight without Brow in the lineup.  At $6k, a pretty hefty price tag, Jones will have some work to do to reach value but I have a hard time imagining him not getting there.

C: Tyson Chandler - $4,900 - Suns:  Ugh, this Mexico game...  Chanlder has been playing at a high level at a very reasonable price.  Len is questionable, so Tyson should see plenty of minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble.  Bogut was scratched, so this should allow Tyson to have a little bit easier of a time grabbing some rebounds and of course there's the revenge factor of a player playing his former team.

G: Eric Bledsoe - $7,000 - Suns: Ugh, this Mexico game... Wait, I think I just said that?   Bledsoe's price is very low for what he's been doing lately on the court.  I'm thinking that DK factored in the travel along with a pretty solid DEF he's facing tonight, but I'll take his chances at that price for as long as they want to give it to us.

F: Harrison Barnes - $6,700 - Mavericks:  Alright, I won't say it again.  For tournaments only, I have several players in this game that I like.  I can't trust them in cash games because there's no telling how playing in this different atmosphere will effect some of these guys - but for tournaments, I couldn't resist Barnes at a good price playing in an up-tempo game.

UTL: Rajon Rondo - $5,000 - Bulls: I had a small % of him in their last game and he played pretty darn well ... and DK noticed and bumped up his price.  That being said, the team still needs offense and Wade can't do it all by himself.  I really wanted to gamble with McDermott again tonight but decided to roll Rondo out there in the national TV spot that he likes to play in.   Hopefully he gets some run and he continues to try and increase his trade value tonight.

Wednesday 1/11 super early NBA DFS Picks -- and I will check before lock

After yesterday's disaster, I want to point out that I will be checking my lineups tonight before roster lock.  This is just the early lineup I selected last night to lock in some entries into a few events.

Here we go:

PG: Mike Conley - Grizz - $6,900: I like Conley in this spot for a few reasons.  First, Westbrook is not known for his defense, so Conley should have multiple spots to score the ball tonight.  Also, with all of the media grief Conley received for his high dollar contract, wouldn't you think he'd want to stick it to one of the best PG's in the NBA?  Lastly, Westbrook turns the ball over, a lot and Conley is a pretty strong defender so he should be able to "steal" some extra FPPs in that category as well.  He would need 35 to reach 5x and I have a hard time believing he won't reach that value.

SG: Evan Fournier - Magic - $6,000: This may change once I hear if LaVine is playing tonight or not, as I love his spot tonight.  As for Fournier, he's facing a Clippers team that you can attack at the SG/SF position and Fournier has been getting plenty of run since returning from injury.  He has been taking double digits in shots since returning and likes to fill all of the spots in the score sheet.  If LaVine plays I may slide Evan into the SF slot instead.

SF: Robert Covington - Sixers - $6,000: I can't help but worry because, after all, it's Covington and you know that 6 pt night is somewhere in the horizon.  The way he's been playing lately though, he's worth plugging in at this salary.  He continues to thrive with or without Embiid in the lineup so tonight is a solid night to run him out there vs the Knicks and the mess of a franchise they are right now (did I just say the Knicks were the worst franchise in this match up?  Wow).   Carmelo is dealing with a shoulder injury and has never been known as a lock down defender, so I like Cov tonight.

PF: Montrezl Harrell - Rockets - $5,300: I continue to run Montrezl out there and have rarely been disappointed.  He may not flash the 50 upside some may want to look for in the tournament game, but he has been extremely solid lately and continues to hit 5x or 6x each night and I will take that.  Facing Minnesota worries me a bit, as Towns is a big body, but I don't think it'll slow down Harrell enough to fade.

C: Mason Plumlee - Blazers- $6,000: Plumlee had been crushing heading into last night's game and then, for some reason, his minutes were cut way down.  There have been some talking heads that have suggested that he was rested last night so that he'd be at full speed for tonight's match-up vs the Cavs.  Cleveland, reportedly, did not get into Portland until around 5am today so they could be moving a bit slow tonight and that just increases my love of a few Portland guys tonight, as you'll see.

G: Patrick Beverley - Rockets - $5,600: Now this is one I will certainly be keeping my eye on in terms of health tonight.  Beverley has been known to get rested and this is the Rockets 3rd game in 4 nights, so he may get this one off.   If not, he's in a great spot against Ricky Rubio defense, or lack there of, as well as getting the opportunity to mix in some steals and cheap rebounds vs an opposing PG that turns the ball over at a high rate.   I like Beverley to at least reach value tonight, if not crush it ... assuming he plays.

F: Al-Farouq Aminu - Blazers - $5,100: Aminu has been incredible lately and has been reaching 7x or 8x on a nightly basis.  Squaring off with Kevin Love tonight should not slow him down by any means.  Needing someone with a cheaper price point, I am not sure there's anyone better in this range than Aminu.

UTL: Damian Lillard - Blazers - $8,500: This one may change before lock, just because I never enjoy taking 3 players from the same team.  That being said, Lillard has been firing at all cylinders since returning from injury and I do not see him taking the night off against the Cavs tonight.  Lillard too 21 shots in just 31 minutes last night so I'm thinking he, like Plumlee, got a few minutes off last night in preparation for tonight's game.  Kyrie defense is always a spot where you want to target an opposing PG and as mentioned previously, the Cavs had a late night last night so they could be moving a bit slow today and that just increases my love for Lillard more tonight.  

There may be a few changes before roster lock as I'm sure there will be some people out, some people in and something that needs adjusting.

I had been playing Marcus Smart nightly while Bradley is out, but his price has skyrocketed and now I'm not so sure there's much value left.

Take that sentence and just rinse and repeat for Ersan Ilyasova.  I have been plugging him into every lineup for a while now but his price has just reached levels that I am not comfortable playing him at this point.

If LaVine is a go tonight I will likely find a way for him into several lineups and, if he's not, I will be running Wiggins out in a few.

I'm intrigued by Carmelo tonight, as he had a big game following an ejection recently and I can see that happening again tonight vs the Sixers.  Also curious to see how Rose bounces back after the mess from Monday night.  I guess I have to put Brandon Jennings into a few lineups tonight, just in case...

And this is why you must pay attention at all times - and other notes for Tuesday

If this week has taught us nothing else, it's that you have to pay attention to your roster at all times before lock.  Especially with the illness that is running am-muck through the NBA.

I set my roster up tonight, locked it into the $4 Draft Kings tournament along with a few 50/50's and headed out to bowling.

About 7:45pm I decided to check out the updates and see how my teams were starting, only to see that Nikola Mirotic had been scratched.

I missed cashing by less than 10 pts.

Lesson learned.  ALWAYS find a way to check your  roster before the locks occur.  Otherwise you lose all rights to be upset when things don't fall your way!!

Speaking of the Bulls, what exactly is going on with Doug McDermott?   I understand that he doesn't exactly have the best skill set in the game, but he has always found ways to score the ball when given the chance.

Tonight, with Butler, Wade and Mirotic out, this seemed like a dream spot for McDermott and instead he finds a way to get into early foul trouble and scores single digit points  ... again.

I will surely be fading him until he figures out a way to get his shot back.

Also, Rondo goes Rondo in the first half.   That guy may not be a good real-world NBA player, but man does he have some great Fantasy upside!

Other disappointments on Tuesday's slate for me:

Mason Plumlee - had been crushing value of late and tonight put up a semi-dud with just 25.  Facing a Lakers front court that has had a hard time stopping bigs lately, I had very high hopes for Plumlee in this spot and am stunned he put up anything short of 35.

Goran Dragic - I guess I shouldn't be too surprised when any Heat player under preforms right now, as they have  the majority of their guys healthy, so there  just isn't enough touches to go around.  Steph Curry isn't exactly knows as a shut down defender, so I expected Dragic to thrive in this up tempo matchup.  Again, 27 could've been a lot worse, but at his current price, we need more  out of Goran to justify a spot  in the lineup.

Reggie Jackson: He was due a bit of a struggle, I just didn't expect it to be vs the Kings on Tuesday.  I can look past this one though as he has been lights out recently and we can forgive one off(ish) evening.

Overall it wasn't a great night but wasn't awful either.  Again on DK I managed to have several teams between 265 and 299.  I have to figure out how to get into the 320+ realm if I expect to start hitting big spots in tournaments.

More to learn, every day.  It's a work in progress.

Tuesday 1/10/17 early picks and venting about Monday's slate

What an absolute disaster Monday turned out to be.

Had it just been for Carmelo getting ejected, Davis getting hurt and missing the 4th (though he likely would have anyway due to a blowout), McDermott putting up a dud, Porzingis putting up a dud, Jimmy Butler saying he was ready to go and couldn't wait for his matchup vs Westbrook and then putting up a dud, Wade going out --- what else could have gone wrong in yesterday's three game slate?!

Oh, that's right, somehow Derrick Rose was not with the team, yet no beat writer or DFS strategy site could have reported that?   I get if he gets hurt and is a late scratch due to that, but announcing at 7:37pm that he is out for personal reasons and is NOT WITH THE TEAM is just inexcusable.   How was this not reported at any point.  Seriously, I'll ask again, can someone explain how it was not noticed that he wasn't partaking in shoot around?

Anyway, onto today's slate.

I have put in my early lineups and will likely not make many changes as I will not be around my devices at roster lock.

Here are my early thoughts:

PG: Damian Lillard - $9000 - Portland: This may be a little too much to pay for Lillard, but I'm willing to take that risk tonight.  Since coming back from injury he has shown no signs of rust and is chucking the ball up like the Damian we know and love.  He would need to get to 45 FPP to reach cash game playable and I believe he can get there tonight vs the Lakers and their inability to cover the PG position.

SG: Marcus Smart - $5,800 - Boston: The only problem here is the fact that Smart will be super high owned.  Avery Bradley has already been ruled out tonight and Smart has proven to thrive when taking Bradley's spot in the rotation.  He is able to score fantasy points in multiple ways and those are the guys I love.  Smart will be in every lineup I make tonight.

SF: Nikola Mirotic - $4,900 - Chicago: The Bulls will be without Wade and Butler tonight so here is where you will find the value you need in DFS.  Mirotic is a fantastic shooter and will be facing a Wizards team that loves to up the tempo every chance they get.  Nikola will not be the only cheap Bulls player I take tonight.

PF: James Johnson - $6,000 - Miami: Another "do it all guy", I plug Johnson into my lineup any time he's $6k or lower.  He's right on the fringe of having to think about it, but until his price goes over this # I will be playing him.   He is a scrappy guy that, again, can score fantasy points without having to actually put the ball in the basket.   I love his matchup tonight and will be heavily exposed to JJ.

C: Montrezl Harrell - $5,800 - Houston: Bigs vs the Hornets.  Need I say more?  It's always a good start when you take the opposing center in this matchup, but Harrell has been exceeding value almost every night and is a hard-nosed bulldog that gets in there and fights for rebounds against a small-ish frontcourt.  I have little to no doubt that he gets 5x tonight on his current salary.

G: Kemba Walker - $8,000 - Charlotte:  This one I am still on the fence about.  Playing a high tempo team like the Rockets should be a great spot for Kemba.  Facing Patrick Beverley, on the other hand, sounds like a nightmare.  At $8k I still feel he can get to 5x tonight in a game that should be very high scoring and the Hornets missing their other key scorer in Batum, but this is still a spot that I may look elsewhere before roster lock.

F: Doug McDermott - $4,400 - Chicago: I refuse to let the recency bias take me off of him tonight.  I feel we should get him for free based on last night's performance however.  Anyway, he's in a great spot tonight as the Bulls, as mentioned earlier, as missing their top two scorers so they will need someone to put the ball in the basket.  Enter Dougie McBuckets.   He should have free reign to shoot as many times as he wants tonight and I have a feeling he will be more than happy to oblige.  I just have that feeling that he absolutely crushes value tonight and could put up a GPP winning type of performance.

UTL: Rudy Gay - $6,500 - Sacramento: His price just keeps on going up, but like I mentioned in a previous blog post, he'll have a spot on my roster any time he's under $7k.  Gay has come back from injury and looked like the player of old as he has scored around 30 FPPs in each game and is taking double digits shots each night.  The matchup tonight is a little rough vs the Pistons, but I love his potential to put up 40 or 50 on any given night and his basement seems pretty secure for my liking.  

Monday 1/9 NBA DFS Early day picks

Oh baby.... a 3 game slate always makes things interesting...

So many people with so little variance.  This should be an interesting, and low volume, night for me.

Anyway, onto my picks:

PG: Russell Westbrook - $13,000 - OKC: Yup, you read that right.  His salary has gotten out of control.  I may end up fading him in tournaments and only playing him in cash, but right now I have him in both.  The Bulls ranked near the bottom of the NBA in guarding the PG position with Rondo and that has actually somehow gotten worse since MCW took over, believe it or not.  Jimmy Butler has been downgraded to questionable today, which means this game should stay close and Westbrook should get a big chunk of minutes.  He's been going crazy the last few games and I intend on riding that train for another game.

SG: Dwayne Wade - $6,200 - Bulls: Again, this is an "if Butler sits" lock for me.  Without Butler you have to look for Wade to take over the offense for the Bulls.  They have already announced that Wade will play tonight and likely rest tomorrow, so this is a must start spot for him, in my opinion.  I am a little afraid of Oladipo's defense, but I still think Wade gets his numbers tonight and is just one of three Bulls I'm using in my early day lineups.

SF: Doug McDermott - $4,200 - Bulls: With or without Butler, I'm playing Doug tonight.  His minutes are solidified in the rotation and he is getting more and more comfortable with his shot.  Once an offensive weapon like McDermott gets comfortable and allows the game to slow down for him a bit he has the ability to score in waves.   Right now things are going well for Doug and I plan on riding this wave out.

PF: Kristaps Porzingis - $7.400 - Knicks: The over/under on this game is large and the young phenom looks to be back and at full speed again after an injury scare.  With Carmelo battling a shoulder injury I look for Porzingis to take on the burden of scoring for this team.  He has flashed 50-60 point upside and, when healthy, his basement is still pretty solid.  I like him tonight in an up and down game vs the Pelicans.

C: Donatas Motiejunas - $3,000 - Pelicans: 100% pure tournament pick as we literally know nothing about his spot in the rotation.   He played 20 minutes in his first game of the season and performed admirably, but there is no data that says he will get that much run again tonight.   He will not be in my cash game lineups, but I have to take a shot in getting him into a few tournament spots.

G: Michael Carter-Williams - $4,600 - Bulls: This pick scares me.  Grant's minutes have been creeping up and he actually out minute'd MCW in the last game.  That being said, I am still going to run Carter-Williams out there in my tournament lineups as I feel he has the highest fantasy upside and his price is still reasonable.   In an up tempo game MCW should thrive, so here's to hoping he gets 25+ minutes tonight vs OKC.

F: Dirk Nowitzki - $5,200 - Mavericks: Is he the Dirk of old?  Of course not.  However, Dirk has been creeping up in minutes and actually played 30 in Dallas' last game.  He is taking double digit shot attempts and has scored 20+ fantasy points his last three games.  Again, a tournament option only for me tonight, but well worth the risk of at least reaching value with the chance of going over a bit.

UTL: Steven Adams - $6,000 - Thunder: I am not sure there is a player on this slate more than I like Adams tonight.  He has been consistently exceed value recently yet continues to go over-looked in most lineups.  Tonight I expect him to be higher owned simply because the slate is so small, but I will still have him in the majority of my lineups this evening.


I also like: Tyreke Evans, Buddy Heild, JJ Barea and a few others tonight for low dollar tournament punts.

The big news will be whether or not Jimmy Butler plays, so I'll be holding my lock button until we hear that news.

Heading into the Royal Rumble, is it too early to speculate on WrestleMania?

As fans, one of the most exciting things to do it a) guess who will be the surprise entrants into the Rumble each year and b) try and figure out the path to WrestleMania and who will be facing who.

Since the Rumble hasn't happened yet, that makes figuring out the matches for 'Mania a little tricky, but that never stopped anyone from trying!

Match #1: Brock Lesnar v Goldberg

After Brock's embarrassing defeat at the Survivor Series and his disappearing act since, one has to think that he will somehow cost Goldberg at the Rumble thus re-igniting that spark.  I am not sure if he eliminates him clean or, the more likely candidate, Goldberg tosses Lesnar over and Brock goes crazy and hops back into the ring and tosses Goldberg out.

That is a whole other point all together.  How long will the WWE go on with this craziness that allows people that have been eliminated to come back in and eliminate the remaining competitors?!  What would stop Brock, under this rule, from coming back in when the match was down to say Goldberg vs Reigns and close-lining them both over the top rope at the same time.  Who wins?  It's just a crazy hole that makes no sense ... but I digress.

This feud has to have a blow-off match at the 'Grandest Stage of them All' but the question remains: who wins?

Goldberg has been contracted to appear in several PPVs it sounds and Lesnar is supposed to be WWE's "monster" so either of them losing wouldn't make sense.   I would have to think Lesnar goes over as I can't imagine they'd have him lose 3 in a row to Goldberg and thus ruining the push that they'd been giving Lesnar for the last couple of years.

Match #2: Seth Rollins v HHH

With Rollins calling out Hunter week after week, this one seems like it is pretty much in the bag as well.  Again, WWE could use the Rumble as a way to get this one started again as well by having HHH either be IN the Rumble and eliminate Rollins or come out and distract him long enough for another competitor to toss him out.  Either way, I fully expect a HHH sighting soon and these two to put on a very solid match at 'Mania

Match #3: Kevin Owens vs Chris Jericho

This match makes me happy and sad all at the same time.  Happy because it should be an absolutely great match with some strong tension and story telling in the ring.  KO is one of the best in the business, when they let him be, on story telling and showing anger towards his opponent in the squared-circle.  His "best friend turned enemy" story with Zayn in NxT was some of the best work I have seen from any superstar in recent years and I fully expect that level of awesomeness from Owens in this feud.

The sad part is, this likely means KO loses the Universal title along the way.

Unfortunately, at this point in his career, I can't imagine the WWE would put Y2J into a match for the main title for the flagship show.  The only way I can see this being for a belt at all is if Jericho beats Reigns for the US belt and they end up fighting for that at WrestleMania, but I fully expect this to be a match that is purely based on the hatred they will end up having for each other.

Match #4: Bayley v Sasha Banks v Charlotte

This one comes with an * as there have been recent rumors of trading Sasha over to SmackDown, but at this time that has not happened so I will more forward with the current roster structure.

This could easily be a one on one match with Sasha being the odd lady out, but I think it would be much more entertaining as a triple threat.  The problem is, it's the same triple threat as last time, only with Bayley taking Becky's spot -- so maybe they do lean more towards a 1 on 1 match instead.

Either way, this should be the crowning moment where Bayley wins the title and goes on her long reign as women's champion.

The crowd is fully behind her and it's clear they're pushing her in the same form they did Daniel Bryan, so this is the perfect spot to crown her as the face of the women's division.

Match #5: Bray Wyatt vs Randy Orton

They have already started the tension within this group so it is only a matter of time before the Viper turns on the Eater of Worlds.  I would not be surprised to see, by the time 'Mania comes along, that Orton plays the heel while the Wyatt family is playing the face(s).

Orton is much better as a heel while the crowd is dying to get behind Wyatt and his brothers.  It would only make sense for this break up to help lead them down this path.

On a side note, speaking of brothers, can we please get Bo Dallas into the Wyatt family?  I love his in-ring work and he's being completely wasted at this point.  I am sure the last thing he wants to do is to ride his brother's coat tails, but at least it would make him relevant for a while.

Ok, that's enough of the "this is what will likely happen" matches and move onto the "please let these happen" matches:

Match #6: American Alpha vs The Revival

These two teams are leaps and bounds the best "old school" tag-teams in the WWE right now.  I fully believe The Revival has the ability to be what "The Club" was supposed to be.   Heels that can come in and be that old-school heel that takes shortcuts to win, be smug but get the job done.  Their catch phrase "No Flips, Just Fists" is incredible.

These two teams put on some spectacular matches in NxT and I think they're ready to do their dance on the big stage in front of the largest crowd the WWE sees, at WrestleMania.

Match #7: AJ Styles vs Fin Balor

I know, I know, Fin is on RAW and I said we were going with current roster structures, but this is my "please let this happen" part, so I'm hoping this make this work.

Fin, at this point, doesn't look to have a spot in the main event picture on RAW and, the be honest, if he's not feuding with KO or Rollins, I wouldn't want to waste him on that brand.  The ONLY other person on the Raw roster I would like to see Fin feud with is Cesaro, but we see that they are having a hard time believing in pushing him to the top, so I want Fin to end up on Smackdown.

A dream match featuring the Demon vs the Phenomenal One would be a show stopping event.  This is a match that could go down as one of the all-time great is done right and pulled off properly.

Match #8: John Cena vs Undertaker

The Undertaker will certainly have a spot on this card one way or another.  One of the hot rumors is that he wins the Rumble and faces Reigns at 'Mania.  That could be an absolute trainwreck.

At this point in his career, UT need someone that can carry him through a match and allow him to hit a spot or two, but more so making it a slug-fest that would be entertaining as well as someone that could carry him through a big spot or two.

Would you trust Reigns to do that?

Cena, though he never gets credit for it, is a pretty solid in-ring worker and can work up or down to his opponent.  Knowing he's in the spotlight facing one of the all-time greatest in the business, I think Cena can certainly do his part to make this look like a competitive match without making UT look like a total stiff.  There aren't many people in the business at this point that I would trust to work a match with UT and make it look good, Cena is on that short list.

Match #9: Sami Zayn vs Dean Ambrose

Dean is better as a heel and they need to get him back to being just that.   This would be another match that would involve a trade, but they need to move Zayn at this point to help re-start his career.  He is currently a punching bag for his bigger foes and it's quite frankly getting old.

Moving Zayn over to Smackdown and giving him a match with the Lunatic Fringe would be an exciting match that could give these guys a chance to steal the show with some of their high spots.

Match #10: New Day (c) vs The Club vs Enzo and Big Cass

They either need to break up the New Day and let Big E move onto the US title picture while X moves over to the 205 live brand, though that leaves Kofi fluttering in the wind.   My other thought would be to turn them heel again and have them cheat to 'steal' the titles back and start completely dodging all real opponents or ducking out in matches.  Maybe getting themselves DQ'd to keep the belts, getting counted out, random cheats, whatever it takes to get people to hate them again.

This would give the 3 "big" tag teams on RAW into a match and kind of hide some of the deficiencies that each of these teams have.    Also, there are only so many slots on this card so we have to bundle some of these guys together.

Match #11: Cesaro vs Shemaus

If they're both still on RAW, one would think this would be the blow off match that would end their rivalry for good.  Honestly, these are two guys I would put into a Money in the Bank match (with Cesaro winning) if they decide to go that route at this years' event.

Otherwise, if no MIB, I would have these two have a blow off match to end their interaction for good, never to be heard from again.  It's time they go their separate ways and start Cesaro's push to the top.

Match #12:  The Miz vs Bobby Roode

The Miz is easily the best worker WWE has on the mic right now.  After re-capturing his title from Ambrose and then retaining it vs him several times, I can see Miz coming out week after week taunting Daniel Bryan about not having anyone on Smackdown that can beat him.  Feed him guys like Tyler Breeze, Apollo Crews, Bo Dallas, Heath Slater, etc etc until finally Bryan comes out and says "well Miz, it looks like you've run over all of our Intercontinental contenders here on Smackdown ... so I had to to outside of the brand to find you a worthy competitor", and cue "Glorious" and have Roode come out to a verbal battle with the Miz.  These two have very similar in-ring styles and could make for an entertaining feud both in and out of the ring.


Match #13: Rusev vs Baron Corbin

I know, we're getting to the point that there needs to be a lot of changes before this event, but so have you.  Rusev is yet another guy that could use a change of scenery to help re-ignite a fire in him.   Another great worker that is being wasted on silly gimmicks, moving him to Smackdown and letting him actually work would be great for his character.

Baron Corbin is being pushed as the "big dog" on Smackdown and someone eventually needs to step up and knock him down a peg.   Pushing Rusev as a bit of a tweener face/heel to feud against Corbin would set up a hard hitting match between two guys who have styles that would work together quite well.


You may notice that I haven't put Reigns in any match just yet.   Well, that's because I'm a dreamer.  I know they can't raid the NxT brand for all of it's stars, but I think they're missing the boat by not promoting this next guy as I think he would be a global face that would absolutely be the biggest thing that's come to WWE in quite a lot time.

Match #14: Roman Reigns (c) vs Shinsuke Nakamura

What better way to get Nakamura over with the fans!?   A surprise entrant into the Royal Rumble, Shinsuke works his way through the event and stands alone atop as the winner and gets his shot at the title at 'Mania.

Reigns will likely beat KO for the Universal title, so this would set up a hard hitting match between "the big dog" and the "King of strong style".

Over the next few months all we can hope for is that the WWE finally lets Roman start embracing the boos and working on a heel turn, culminating at Mania when Shinsuke beats him for the title and the crowd erupts.

This would give Roman the ability to come out the next night and give the fans a big "screw you for not supporting me" speech and going full fledged heel like everyone has been hoping for.

As for Shinsuke, this guy has it all.  I am not sure I have been looking forward to a debut in the WWE as much as I have for this guy.  If you don't know who he is you should google him and watch some of his NxT matches or New Japan matches on youtube.  You'll see what I mean.

Man, there are a few guys and gals I left out of this, as I have no idea what they'll be doing with them.   For example, Becky Lynch and Alexa Bliss.  Will that feud be going that long and, if not, who the heck is next in line for the Smackdown women's title?  Nikki Bella again?  Asuka should get her chance at some point, but again, will they be calling up all of the NxT talent with seemingly very little to replace them?

Will Samoa Joe get the call at some point?  If so, where does he end up and who will he be facing?

Where does Braun Stroman fit into the plans?  Would be be facing Reigns if they don't make any big call-ups for this event?  I could see the WWE putting it's two big men in the ring against each other.  I would not be shocked in the least if this happens.

What about Ziggler?  Who will he be facing?  He HAS to have a spot in the show as he's one of the best workers they have, but where does he fit?

Also, the 205 live division.  I did not write about them, but could see them having a fatal 4 way or something, as there is a lot of talent in that division.

So many starts, so little time.

And no, I will not write about the Big Show v Shaq match, ever.

Sunday's are made for DFS, right?

I had not planned on playing any NBA DFS today as I thought my afternoon would be dedicated to watching the NFL playoffs and, unfortunately, I did not get in any of the big contests for that before lock as church ran over a bit this morning.

Well, as I sat there watching football I thought, "ah, I can keep an eye on the game and lock in some rosters for basketball tonight".  I popped open Draft Kings and saw that the games did not start until 8pm ET this evening so I reserved spots in 10 50/50's, a couple H2H games and a few spots in the $4 $250k Four Point Play tournament.

With only four games on the slate it made things a little trickier when it came to finding value, as I (like everyone else probably) just wanted to load up on the Cavs big 3 or the Warriors big 4.

Here is the direction I ended up going on most of my teams:

PG: Eric Bledsoe - PHO - $6,900: His price was just way too cheap.  Bledsoe was one of 3 players I locked into every lineup today.  Facing the defense of Kyrie Irving, I felt Bledsoe's basement was a safe 25-30 and his ceiling was 55-60.  For under $7k, he was clearly worth selecting to anchor my teams.

SG: Devin Booker - PHO - $6,200: This is the one of the two positions that I had the most difficulties figuring out.  I wanted to potentially punt this one and take Brandon Knight at $3,900, which I did in a few lineups, but decided to go with Booker on my main tournament rosters.  Another guy that flashes a high ceiling when his shot is falling and playing in what should be a pretty up and down game, I decided to roll the dice with Devin and see how the chips fell.

SF: Rudy Gay - Kings - $6,100:  As I mentioned in a previous write-up, I will be locking Gay into my lineups until he's over $7,000 and then I will at least have to think about it.  When healthy, he is going to put up solid numbers night after night and he appears to be in pretty good shape at this time.  I have locked him into all of my lineups tonight and, hopefully, this won't backfire.

PF: Julius Randle - Lakers - $7,000: This is one I went back and forth on for quite a while.  I really wanted Love in this spot, as I fully expected him to have a big game tonight, but I have to save some money every chance I get.  Randle has been playing some very good basketball lately and is another guy that has a pretty safe basement of 20-25 but has flashed the ability to put up 50 on any given night.  Playing an Orlando team that has seemingly picked up the pace lately, I liked Randle's spot again this evening.

C: Tyson Chandler - PHO - $4,900: Chandler has been quietly putting up some great numbers lately at a very reasonable cost.  I had a hard time deciding between Tyson and the guy he was lined up against tonight, Tristan Thompson.  Again, saving a little here in there became quite important, so I elected to go with Chandler tonight.

G: Kyrie Irving - Cavs - $8,200: This PG matchup was just too good to ignore.  Two of the best scoring PGs in the game facing off against each other, neither of which overly caring much about defense, is a fantasy player's dream.  Kyrie's price made this one a little hard to fit, but I had my mind made up that I wanted both sides of the ball on this one.  The savings that I picked up in taking Randle instead of Love helped me fit Kyrie into this spot.

F: Evan Fournier - Magic - $6,300: This may just be some favoritism, but I always like playing Evan when he's going to be in an up tempo game as he tends to produce solid numbers across the board.  He will find many different ways to pick up fantasy points and he fit the roster I was putting together tonight.  I likely could have gone cheaper here and bolstered my UTL slot, but I wanted a piece of the Magic team in tonight's game and Evan was the person I ended up landing on.

UTL: Ty Lawson - Kings - $4,200: Since coming back from injury Lawson has been performing well.  Now, that being said, had I seen he wasn't starting tonight I likely would have swayed away from this pick, but I found out that info after roster lock.  Whoops.   On the other hand, he has played some great ball backing up Collison at the PG slot and I needed a cheap player to fill out my team and I loved the way the rest of it came together, so he was certainly worth the gamble. I mean, you have to gamble in a few spots to take down a GPP, right?!

Changes ended up as another night of bubbling

So many changes as the injury reports rolled in tonight.  Here is the lineup I ended up going with:

PG: Tyler Johnson - Miami - $5,800: This was the last guy in my lineup and he was plugged in because he was the best available with the cash I had left, in my mind.  With everyone back for Miami this pick made me nervous, but I thought people would still be on Josh Richardson and I have liked Tyler coming off the bench and backing up Dragic.  The amazing thing is, Dragic got tossed in the 3rd quarter, setting up Johnson for a massive end to the game ... only it didn't work out that way.  He finished with 23.75 which was extremely disappointing.

SG: Eric Gordon - Houston - $5,800: Gordon has been playing very good basketball recently and this game had a very high o/u.  I had a couple Harden-less stacks of this game and Gordon was one of the first people in my lineup each time.  With the 3 point bonus on Draft Kings I will be playing Gordon until his salary gets higher.  Tonight he went for 30.25 which wasn't great, but still a tad over 5x

SF: Rudy Gay - Kings - $6,000: Once I got word that he was officially starting I fired him into all of my lineups at that price.  Facing a banged up Clippers team I felt this price was a steal for a very solid DFS SF.  Obviously there were concerns about him coming off injury, but in GPPS, that was a risk I was willing to take.  He ended up with just 28.75 points, falling just short of 5x, but I will take him every night if he stays at that price.

PF: Ersan Ilyasova - Sixers - $6,000: Like I mentioned earlier, I may ride this wave until it crashes.  Ersan has been crushing value lately and, in turn, his price continues to head up.  He may be reaching a level that makes it hard for me to fit him into my lineups, but for now, he's going to be in all of mine.  He ended up getting 36 points tonight for an even 6x on his salary.

C: Greg Monroe - Bucks - $5,800:  Basically you can read the above description and just plug in Greg's name.  This game was a stud when with the Pistons and it looks like the Bucks have figured that out.  I am fearful that he is going to have a 6 pt 8 minute game soon, but I will continue tossing him in my roster as long as he's in the $6k range.  Tonight Greg put up 39.25 on DK giving us almost 7x on his salary tonight.  Perfect!

G: Isiah Thomas - Celtics - $8,300: Facing a Sixers team that isn't exactly known for their defense and matching up with TJ McConnell, I thought Thomas was a lock for 50+ FPP tonight.  Unfortunately that did not happen... not even close.  It a very disappointing outing Thomas only gave us 31 tonight.  Under 4x for my high dollar guy will never be acceptable.

F: James Johnson - Heat - $5,700: Man do I love this guy's game.  Any time a guy can reach value without relying on scoring, he'll have a spot on my team.  I thought this was a perfect spot for a massive game from JJ.  If I had to do it all over again, I would start him again.  I had 80% exposure to him tonight and that came back to sting me a little bit.  He ended up with a decent 34.25 FPP night, which was fine for his salary, but I had such high hopes..

UTL: Mike Conley - Grizzlies - $6,600: Until his salary goes up, he's going to be a lock for me every night.  One of my favorite players in the league, Conley's price is just too cheap at the moment.  You always have to keep an eye out to ensure he's playing, as they like to make sure he stays healthy and give him days off, but if he's starting I will be playing him.  Tonight he had a spectacular game both in DFS and real life.  Making clutch plays to get the Grizz back into the game and hitting a huge shot at the end of regulation and another in OT Conley ended up giving us 54 FPPs tonight and helped get me over the cashing bubble.

I played several teams tonight and got crushed by having way too much exposure to Jae Crowder in my cash games as he only gave me 14.5 points and essentially taking me out of any chance of making money all by himself.

On the flip side, in retrospect, I had too little exposure to Willie Reed.   I have played him pretty much every game since Whiteside has gone out and, other than his dud vs Cousins where I had a super low % of him, he was been great.  Tonight I only had him a couple times and he crushed with 47 FPPs on a $4,200 salary.  Incredible night for Willie!

I attempted to fade the high dollar guys as IT2 was my highest single player and he burned me.  Overall the slate could've gone worse and I have to keep learning and figure out how to get to the next level.

Onto tomorrow.

Friday 1/6/2016 NBA DFS Early picks

Well, another afternoon of really needing more information before giving any real selections.  There are a lot of players I like tonight but so much depends on the health of the Cavs players as well as Klay Thompson, who was a lock and load guy before his questionable tag this afternoon.

Rather than giving you a lineup, since I don't have one yet, I'll just give you some guys I like tonight:


PG: Isiah Thomas - Celtics - $8,300: Thomas has been one of the highest producing fantasy sports players terms of point per dollar and I don't look for him to slow down tonight.  If Embiid misses tonight there really will not be any defensive presence in the middle to slow down IT2's drives and I look for him to have a big game tonight.  The only worry I have is a blowout and him not getting much run in the 4th Q

SG: Sean Kilpatrick - Nets - $5,300: There are a few factors that could change this one.  Who starts for Cleveland?   Will Kilpatrick start or come off the bench?  If he comes off the bench, and 1 or 2 of the big three sit tonight, I love this pick.  This is easily the one that could change as the night goes on and more value appears, so keep an eye on injury reports and starting lineups.

PF: Ersan Ilyasova - Sixers - $6,000: His price keeps going up but, if Embiid is out, I think Ersan is in another good position here to crush value.  He has been a plug and play for a week or so now and you can fully expect somewhere in the 30 point FPP range each time he takes the court.  If Embiid is out Ersan will be on every team I field tonight.

C: Jahlil Okafor - Sixers - $4,400: Again, this one is based on if Embiid plays or sits.  If he is out Okafor's usage increases and makes him worth owning.  He isn't flashy and you will likely have to watch the game log with your hands over your eyes as it won't be pretty but he certainly has a chance of crushing value tonight.

C: Montrezl Harrell - Rockets - $5,500: Nene played last night so this pick is simply based on the fact that Harrell's minutes should be large and secure tonight.  He is a 20-25 pt guy on a normal night and I think he has a legit chance of reaching 35+ with  minutes tonight vs Orlando.  If he gets the minutes and can out rebound Bioymbo, look for Harrell to have a big night.

SF: James Johnson - Heat - $5,700: Another player that will be in a huge portion of my lineups tonight. Johnson was showing flashes of greatness before missing some time last week but is now back and ready to be unleashed.  He only played 25 minutes in his last game and still put up 36 FPPs.  Look for his minutes to increase tonight and giving him the chance for a big game.

PG: Goran Dragic - Heat - $7,400: Guards tend to dominate vs the Lakers and Dragic is in prime position to do the same tonight.  The Lakers had a hard fought games against the Blazers last night and Goran could absolutely take advantage of them being a step slower.  I actually love a stack in this game and will probably have a lot of players from here.

Thursday - January 5th - NBA DFS Early day picks

Well another day goes by and another fringe casher for my team.  Nothing really exciting but at least we had some fun games to watch last night on ESPN.   Hopefully there is more of the same tonight.

Here is my current 'skeleton' lineup that, as always, is subject to change depending on any late scratches and value that may open up before roster lock:

PG - D'Angelo Russell - Lakers - $6,000: The Lakers are intriguing to me tonight.  The Trailblazers are on the second game of a B2B after a hard fought game against the Warriors last night.  It's spots like this where I like to target athletic guys that may be able to take advantage of a team that may be just a step slower.  Combining that with the fact that this game should be pretty high scoring and Russell's play has been much improved lately and I think he finds himself in a great spot tonight.

SG - Wes Matthews - Mavericks - $5.600: The Suns play at such a fast pace that the Mavericks will either have to keep up or they run the risk of getting blown out of the gym.  Matthews has been quite consistent and very safe in terms of value as he makes sure he gets his shots up each game.  In a pace up game where there should be plenty of opportunities to score, I like Matthews at this price to reach value and quite possibly reach 6 to 7x tonight.

SF - Tobias Harris - Pistons - $6,100: Harris has been quite a solid plug and play most of the year, but the move to the bench has done nothing but increase his value.  An essential lock for 5x value, Harris is someone I love in cash games and will likely take a stab at in a few tournaments here and there.

PF - Trevor Booker - Nets - $5,600: Booker has slowly started to creep back up on the radar recently with decent play before exploding for 40+ FPP in his last game.  Tonight he faces a Pacers team that likes to jack up shots but isn't the best rebounding team in the world.  I like him to get the double-double bonus tonight on DK and easily reach 5x on his salary.

C - Andre Drummond - Pistons - $7,800: Another guy that I see getting to 5x pretty easily but with the update of getting 7 or 8x if things play out properly.  Big men tend to dominate the Hornets front court and Drummond has been playing great lately.  Factor in that Baynes is likely out again tonight, which would mean more minutes for Drummond, and he's one of my favorite plays on the slate again tonight.

G - Victor Oladipo - Thunder - $6,000:  Victor's price continues to rise as he proves that he is healthy and back to the form that earned him the contract with OKC.  Playing in a game tonight that will be very high scoring and Victor should have no problem reaching 5x or more tonight and, in my own perfect world, could put up his highest point total of the season.

F- Ryan Anderson - Rockets - $5,600: With an o/u of 225, this is a game that a lot of people will likely be looking to stack tonight.  Ryan Anderson gives us a cheaper piece that is always in play in tournaments but, to me, is a solid cash game option tonight on DK.  With the bonus you receive for 3 pointers on DK, Anderson is always in play - but when his team is projected to score 116 points in a competitive game, he will certainly be in a few of my lineups tonight.

UTL - Jrue Holiday - Pelicans - $7.200: News just coming across that Tyreke Evans is questionable tonight means I will move Holiday into my tentative lineup.  I had been debating between Holiday, Gobert and Jokic, but if Evans sits that means more shots for Jrue and potential to put up another solid game.  A solid double/double threat, Jrue has put up 40 in the last two games and I fully expect him to do the same again tonight.

Wednesday January 4th 2017 NBA DFS early picks

After some late changes to my rosters last night it ended up being a little bit of a profit on the evening with TJ Warren doing everything in his power to prevent it.

What a roller-coaster he has been the last several games.

Oh well, onward and upward.

Tonight's slate has some intriguing spots but, as usual, we are waiting on quite a bit of injury news before locking on a roster.

The biggest question of the night is, clearly, the Cleveland Cavaliers and their disease ridden team.  With all of the Big 3 in doubt, their roster is wide open for value or could just be a flat disaster.

Either way, here is my early 'skeleton' lineup:

PG: Michael Carter-Williams - CHI - $4,500 --There are few things in play here.  One, Dwayne Wade is questionable at this time and that, along with the Cavs news we are waiting on, could put MCW into a great spot.  Without Wade there will be more shots to go around thus giving MCW a chance to chuck up a few more and, potentially, rebound his own bricks.  If the Cavs run out a ghost squad tonight the Bulls may, in turn, rest Wade and limit Butler to get them some rest and if that ends up happening it will open a plethora of minutes and opportunity for MCW at a very reasonable price.

SG: JJ Redick - LAC - $5,000 -  As Nick Young showed us last night, Memphis is not good at containing the SG position and allows a high number of open 3's.  If you're going to give someone in the league the chance to hit an open 3 all night, I'm taking Redick all day long.  Granted, this is a scary pick that will only be used in my GPPs  tonight, but with Memphis on the second game of a B2B and the Clips with a day of rest, I like JJ to put up a high rate of shots tonight.

SF: Nicolas Batum - CHA - $8,000 - You may notice a trend of getting Batum into my lineups when CHA plays at home.  This "do-it-all" SF continues to impress with his box-score filling abilities and gets a OKC team tonight that, lets face it, doesn't exactly strive on the defensive end of the ball.  I like Batum tonight to get close to 50 FPPs and putting us in a nice spot in our tournaments this evening.

PF: Channing Frye - CLE - $3,600 - Need I say the obvious here?  This is clearly pending the news from CLE.  If LeBron and Love happen to sit and Frye gets a start, he's a must play in my opinion.  When Frye gets a chance to play, he produces in the fantasy world, especially on Draft Kings where there is the 3 point bonus.  If the news comes out that the big 3, or maybe even 2 of the big 3 are playing I will re-visit this pick.   Keep your eyes peeled on if he is starting.

C: Greg Monroe - MIL - $4,800 - Monroe is flashing the ability that he showed once in Detroit that lead to getting himself paid!  With 30 or more fantasy points on DK in 6 of his last 8 games and facing a NYK frontline of Noah - I like Monroe here to once again smash his $4,800 value.  Of course, you always have to work about them playing "minute roulette" and giving Henson time tonight, but again, that's a risk I'm willing to take in GPPs.

G: Kemba Walker - CHA - $8,200 - Trend #2 ... or, I guess #1a considering it's from the same team.  When Kemba is at home he is one of the first people I put in my lineup.  When Kemba is at home facing a high scoring PG that doesn't pay attention to DEF half of the time because he's busy thinking about how he's going to score the next time he has the ball, I lock in Kemba.   I would be stunned if Walker doesn't attempt to "guard his turf" and go into full out 'scoring competition' vs Westbrook tonight.  I look for him to be one of, if not THE, highest scoring PG on the slate tonight.

F: Kevin Durant - GS - $9,600 - This one may change.  Facing Portland in a high total pace up game, Durant should thrive and put up a monster.   However, I thought that in Golden State's previous match-up as well but KD decided to defer to his team-mates and the score eventually got out of hand, thus reducing his numbers.  I am tempted to roll the dice on him again tonight as this total is just way too high to not pay attention to.  Again, monitoring other news, but he's in for now.

UTL: Josh Richardson - MIA - $6,200 - The NBA right now is a war of attrition. Miami is down quite a few bodies and Josh has been taking full advantage of that situation.   There is still a chance I swap out Monroe for Willie Reed and free up more $ for my UTL slot, but for now, I'm going to lock in Josh here in hopes that the Heat guys take another night off and that Dragic used all of his energy last night in a revenge game - thus giving Josh more use.  

So there we have it.  My early team for tonight's games.  The looks of this will likely change before lock but, barring any breaking news, this is what I'll be rolling out tonight.

Thoughts?

Today is a new day

Well, dang it.  Tyreke (along with Durant) let me down last night and the team I posted in my blog fell just short of cashing in the $4 tournament.

That being said, there's always today!

My early "skeleton" lineup looks like this:

PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Nick Young
SF: Tobias Harris
PF: Ersan Ilyasova
C: Mark Gasol
G: Mike Conley
F: Dario Saric
UTL: Harrison Barnes

This will obviously change a bit before lock, but I am a huge Conley fan (when and if he plays) and it's hard to ignore how hot Gasol and Ersan have been.

If Okafor is out, I believe Saric is a great start.  He's been trending up in minutes and has been producing when given the chance.

Kyle Lowry is facing a Spurs team that struggles to guard the PG position, but I may pivot off of him in what could be a slow paced game.

Harrison Barnes has been, and rightfully so, the focus of the Dallas offense and this game should be pretty high scoring overall.

Last but not least, Swaggy P!   Nick Young vs Memphis as a little birdie told me today that the Grizz have a hard time guarding the SG slot, so I'm trusting his judgement (little birdie also told me to start Trevor Booker last night and I didn't listen).