Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Wednesday January 4th 2017 NBA DFS early picks

After some late changes to my rosters last night it ended up being a little bit of a profit on the evening with TJ Warren doing everything in his power to prevent it.

What a roller-coaster he has been the last several games.

Oh well, onward and upward.

Tonight's slate has some intriguing spots but, as usual, we are waiting on quite a bit of injury news before locking on a roster.

The biggest question of the night is, clearly, the Cleveland Cavaliers and their disease ridden team.  With all of the Big 3 in doubt, their roster is wide open for value or could just be a flat disaster.

Either way, here is my early 'skeleton' lineup:

PG: Michael Carter-Williams - CHI - $4,500 --There are few things in play here.  One, Dwayne Wade is questionable at this time and that, along with the Cavs news we are waiting on, could put MCW into a great spot.  Without Wade there will be more shots to go around thus giving MCW a chance to chuck up a few more and, potentially, rebound his own bricks.  If the Cavs run out a ghost squad tonight the Bulls may, in turn, rest Wade and limit Butler to get them some rest and if that ends up happening it will open a plethora of minutes and opportunity for MCW at a very reasonable price.

SG: JJ Redick - LAC - $5,000 -  As Nick Young showed us last night, Memphis is not good at containing the SG position and allows a high number of open 3's.  If you're going to give someone in the league the chance to hit an open 3 all night, I'm taking Redick all day long.  Granted, this is a scary pick that will only be used in my GPPs  tonight, but with Memphis on the second game of a B2B and the Clips with a day of rest, I like JJ to put up a high rate of shots tonight.

SF: Nicolas Batum - CHA - $8,000 - You may notice a trend of getting Batum into my lineups when CHA plays at home.  This "do-it-all" SF continues to impress with his box-score filling abilities and gets a OKC team tonight that, lets face it, doesn't exactly strive on the defensive end of the ball.  I like Batum tonight to get close to 50 FPPs and putting us in a nice spot in our tournaments this evening.

PF: Channing Frye - CLE - $3,600 - Need I say the obvious here?  This is clearly pending the news from CLE.  If LeBron and Love happen to sit and Frye gets a start, he's a must play in my opinion.  When Frye gets a chance to play, he produces in the fantasy world, especially on Draft Kings where there is the 3 point bonus.  If the news comes out that the big 3, or maybe even 2 of the big 3 are playing I will re-visit this pick.   Keep your eyes peeled on if he is starting.

C: Greg Monroe - MIL - $4,800 - Monroe is flashing the ability that he showed once in Detroit that lead to getting himself paid!  With 30 or more fantasy points on DK in 6 of his last 8 games and facing a NYK frontline of Noah - I like Monroe here to once again smash his $4,800 value.  Of course, you always have to work about them playing "minute roulette" and giving Henson time tonight, but again, that's a risk I'm willing to take in GPPs.

G: Kemba Walker - CHA - $8,200 - Trend #2 ... or, I guess #1a considering it's from the same team.  When Kemba is at home he is one of the first people I put in my lineup.  When Kemba is at home facing a high scoring PG that doesn't pay attention to DEF half of the time because he's busy thinking about how he's going to score the next time he has the ball, I lock in Kemba.   I would be stunned if Walker doesn't attempt to "guard his turf" and go into full out 'scoring competition' vs Westbrook tonight.  I look for him to be one of, if not THE, highest scoring PG on the slate tonight.

F: Kevin Durant - GS - $9,600 - This one may change.  Facing Portland in a high total pace up game, Durant should thrive and put up a monster.   However, I thought that in Golden State's previous match-up as well but KD decided to defer to his team-mates and the score eventually got out of hand, thus reducing his numbers.  I am tempted to roll the dice on him again tonight as this total is just way too high to not pay attention to.  Again, monitoring other news, but he's in for now.

UTL: Josh Richardson - MIA - $6,200 - The NBA right now is a war of attrition. Miami is down quite a few bodies and Josh has been taking full advantage of that situation.   There is still a chance I swap out Monroe for Willie Reed and free up more $ for my UTL slot, but for now, I'm going to lock in Josh here in hopes that the Heat guys take another night off and that Dragic used all of his energy last night in a revenge game - thus giving Josh more use.  

So there we have it.  My early team for tonight's games.  The looks of this will likely change before lock but, barring any breaking news, this is what I'll be rolling out tonight.

Thoughts?