If this week has taught us nothing else, it's that you have to pay attention to your roster at all times before lock. Especially with the illness that is running am-muck through the NBA.
I set my roster up tonight, locked it into the $4 Draft Kings tournament along with a few 50/50's and headed out to bowling.
About 7:45pm I decided to check out the updates and see how my teams were starting, only to see that Nikola Mirotic had been scratched.
I missed cashing by less than 10 pts.
Lesson learned. ALWAYS find a way to check your roster before the locks occur. Otherwise you lose all rights to be upset when things don't fall your way!!
Speaking of the Bulls, what exactly is going on with Doug McDermott? I understand that he doesn't exactly have the best skill set in the game, but he has always found ways to score the ball when given the chance.
Tonight, with Butler, Wade and Mirotic out, this seemed like a dream spot for McDermott and instead he finds a way to get into early foul trouble and scores single digit points ... again.
I will surely be fading him until he figures out a way to get his shot back.
Also, Rondo goes Rondo in the first half. That guy may not be a good real-world NBA player, but man does he have some great Fantasy upside!
Other disappointments on Tuesday's slate for me:
Mason Plumlee - had been crushing value of late and tonight put up a semi-dud with just 25. Facing a Lakers front court that has had a hard time stopping bigs lately, I had very high hopes for Plumlee in this spot and am stunned he put up anything short of 35.
Goran Dragic - I guess I shouldn't be too surprised when any Heat player under preforms right now, as they have the majority of their guys healthy, so there just isn't enough touches to go around. Steph Curry isn't exactly knows as a shut down defender, so I expected Dragic to thrive in this up tempo matchup. Again, 27 could've been a lot worse, but at his current price, we need more out of Goran to justify a spot in the lineup.
Reggie Jackson: He was due a bit of a struggle, I just didn't expect it to be vs the Kings on Tuesday. I can look past this one though as he has been lights out recently and we can forgive one off(ish) evening.
Overall it wasn't a great night but wasn't awful either. Again on DK I managed to have several teams between 265 and 299. I have to figure out how to get into the 320+ realm if I expect to start hitting big spots in tournaments.
More to learn, every day. It's a work in progress.
Tuesday, January 10, 2017
Tuesday 1/10/17 early picks and venting about Monday's slate
What an absolute disaster Monday turned out to be.
Had it just been for Carmelo getting ejected, Davis getting hurt and missing the 4th (though he likely would have anyway due to a blowout), McDermott putting up a dud, Porzingis putting up a dud, Jimmy Butler saying he was ready to go and couldn't wait for his matchup vs Westbrook and then putting up a dud, Wade going out --- what else could have gone wrong in yesterday's three game slate?!
Oh, that's right, somehow Derrick Rose was not with the team, yet no beat writer or DFS strategy site could have reported that? I get if he gets hurt and is a late scratch due to that, but announcing at 7:37pm that he is out for personal reasons and is NOT WITH THE TEAM is just inexcusable. How was this not reported at any point. Seriously, I'll ask again, can someone explain how it was not noticed that he wasn't partaking in shoot around?
Anyway, onto today's slate.
I have put in my early lineups and will likely not make many changes as I will not be around my devices at roster lock.
Here are my early thoughts:
PG: Damian Lillard - $9000 - Portland: This may be a little too much to pay for Lillard, but I'm willing to take that risk tonight. Since coming back from injury he has shown no signs of rust and is chucking the ball up like the Damian we know and love. He would need to get to 45 FPP to reach cash game playable and I believe he can get there tonight vs the Lakers and their inability to cover the PG position.
SG: Marcus Smart - $5,800 - Boston: The only problem here is the fact that Smart will be super high owned. Avery Bradley has already been ruled out tonight and Smart has proven to thrive when taking Bradley's spot in the rotation. He is able to score fantasy points in multiple ways and those are the guys I love. Smart will be in every lineup I make tonight.
SF: Nikola Mirotic - $4,900 - Chicago: The Bulls will be without Wade and Butler tonight so here is where you will find the value you need in DFS. Mirotic is a fantastic shooter and will be facing a Wizards team that loves to up the tempo every chance they get. Nikola will not be the only cheap Bulls player I take tonight.
PF: James Johnson - $6,000 - Miami: Another "do it all guy", I plug Johnson into my lineup any time he's $6k or lower. He's right on the fringe of having to think about it, but until his price goes over this # I will be playing him. He is a scrappy guy that, again, can score fantasy points without having to actually put the ball in the basket. I love his matchup tonight and will be heavily exposed to JJ.
C: Montrezl Harrell - $5,800 - Houston: Bigs vs the Hornets. Need I say more? It's always a good start when you take the opposing center in this matchup, but Harrell has been exceeding value almost every night and is a hard-nosed bulldog that gets in there and fights for rebounds against a small-ish frontcourt. I have little to no doubt that he gets 5x tonight on his current salary.
G: Kemba Walker - $8,000 - Charlotte: This one I am still on the fence about. Playing a high tempo team like the Rockets should be a great spot for Kemba. Facing Patrick Beverley, on the other hand, sounds like a nightmare. At $8k I still feel he can get to 5x tonight in a game that should be very high scoring and the Hornets missing their other key scorer in Batum, but this is still a spot that I may look elsewhere before roster lock.
F: Doug McDermott - $4,400 - Chicago: I refuse to let the recency bias take me off of him tonight. I feel we should get him for free based on last night's performance however. Anyway, he's in a great spot tonight as the Bulls, as mentioned earlier, as missing their top two scorers so they will need someone to put the ball in the basket. Enter Dougie McBuckets. He should have free reign to shoot as many times as he wants tonight and I have a feeling he will be more than happy to oblige. I just have that feeling that he absolutely crushes value tonight and could put up a GPP winning type of performance.
UTL: Rudy Gay - $6,500 - Sacramento: His price just keeps on going up, but like I mentioned in a previous blog post, he'll have a spot on my roster any time he's under $7k. Gay has come back from injury and looked like the player of old as he has scored around 30 FPPs in each game and is taking double digits shots each night. The matchup tonight is a little rough vs the Pistons, but I love his potential to put up 40 or 50 on any given night and his basement seems pretty secure for my liking.
Had it just been for Carmelo getting ejected, Davis getting hurt and missing the 4th (though he likely would have anyway due to a blowout), McDermott putting up a dud, Porzingis putting up a dud, Jimmy Butler saying he was ready to go and couldn't wait for his matchup vs Westbrook and then putting up a dud, Wade going out --- what else could have gone wrong in yesterday's three game slate?!
Oh, that's right, somehow Derrick Rose was not with the team, yet no beat writer or DFS strategy site could have reported that? I get if he gets hurt and is a late scratch due to that, but announcing at 7:37pm that he is out for personal reasons and is NOT WITH THE TEAM is just inexcusable. How was this not reported at any point. Seriously, I'll ask again, can someone explain how it was not noticed that he wasn't partaking in shoot around?
Anyway, onto today's slate.
I have put in my early lineups and will likely not make many changes as I will not be around my devices at roster lock.
Here are my early thoughts:
PG: Damian Lillard - $9000 - Portland: This may be a little too much to pay for Lillard, but I'm willing to take that risk tonight. Since coming back from injury he has shown no signs of rust and is chucking the ball up like the Damian we know and love. He would need to get to 45 FPP to reach cash game playable and I believe he can get there tonight vs the Lakers and their inability to cover the PG position.
SG: Marcus Smart - $5,800 - Boston: The only problem here is the fact that Smart will be super high owned. Avery Bradley has already been ruled out tonight and Smart has proven to thrive when taking Bradley's spot in the rotation. He is able to score fantasy points in multiple ways and those are the guys I love. Smart will be in every lineup I make tonight.
SF: Nikola Mirotic - $4,900 - Chicago: The Bulls will be without Wade and Butler tonight so here is where you will find the value you need in DFS. Mirotic is a fantastic shooter and will be facing a Wizards team that loves to up the tempo every chance they get. Nikola will not be the only cheap Bulls player I take tonight.
PF: James Johnson - $6,000 - Miami: Another "do it all guy", I plug Johnson into my lineup any time he's $6k or lower. He's right on the fringe of having to think about it, but until his price goes over this # I will be playing him. He is a scrappy guy that, again, can score fantasy points without having to actually put the ball in the basket. I love his matchup tonight and will be heavily exposed to JJ.
C: Montrezl Harrell - $5,800 - Houston: Bigs vs the Hornets. Need I say more? It's always a good start when you take the opposing center in this matchup, but Harrell has been exceeding value almost every night and is a hard-nosed bulldog that gets in there and fights for rebounds against a small-ish frontcourt. I have little to no doubt that he gets 5x tonight on his current salary.
G: Kemba Walker - $8,000 - Charlotte: This one I am still on the fence about. Playing a high tempo team like the Rockets should be a great spot for Kemba. Facing Patrick Beverley, on the other hand, sounds like a nightmare. At $8k I still feel he can get to 5x tonight in a game that should be very high scoring and the Hornets missing their other key scorer in Batum, but this is still a spot that I may look elsewhere before roster lock.
F: Doug McDermott - $4,400 - Chicago: I refuse to let the recency bias take me off of him tonight. I feel we should get him for free based on last night's performance however. Anyway, he's in a great spot tonight as the Bulls, as mentioned earlier, as missing their top two scorers so they will need someone to put the ball in the basket. Enter Dougie McBuckets. He should have free reign to shoot as many times as he wants tonight and I have a feeling he will be more than happy to oblige. I just have that feeling that he absolutely crushes value tonight and could put up a GPP winning type of performance.
UTL: Rudy Gay - $6,500 - Sacramento: His price just keeps on going up, but like I mentioned in a previous blog post, he'll have a spot on my roster any time he's under $7k. Gay has come back from injury and looked like the player of old as he has scored around 30 FPPs in each game and is taking double digits shots each night. The matchup tonight is a little rough vs the Pistons, but I love his potential to put up 40 or 50 on any given night and his basement seems pretty secure for my liking.
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