So close, yet so far away.
Last night was a perfect example of why it's difficult to put in a lineup early in the day and then actually expect that lineup to succeed to it's fullest potential.
As I sit scanning Twitter at around 6:30pm last night we get news that Kawhi Leonard was going to be sitting out the Spurs game last night vs the Nets.
"Yikes!" I thought to myself. "This changes everything!!"
Now I have to scramble through and remove Leonard from all of the teams that I currently had him on and, also, go back now and add in a couple Nets players because they have a better chance of keeping it close now. All of the sudden Lopez was in play, Kilpatrick was in play, RHJ was in play. Not only that, but now I need to add LaMarcus Aldridge to as many lineups as possible as his usage is off the charts with Kawhi sits!!
As I'm doing that I get the report that Anthony Davis is also out for the Pelicans.
"DRATS!!!!"
Now I have to make sure I didn't have him in any lineups (which I didn't) but now I have to make sure I get Jrue Holiday and Terrance Jones in some lineups as they are sure to get a huge up-tick in usage with out Brow on the court!
Unfortunately I, like most, didn't think the Pelicans would be able to keep the game close enough to warrant playing LeBron, Love or Kyrie so I faded those three (bad idea) and put my money elsewhere.
Jrue ended up being just 1.9% owned in the DK $4 $150,000 for first league while Jones was a smidge over 10%.
As the early games rolled through I had a couple teams doing decent but one team smashing.
Here was that lineup:
PG: Antetokounmpo (50.75 FPP) : With a high scoring match-up vs the Rockets in his sight, it was hard to go against the Greek Freak in this spot. I figured he would get a bit over looked with all of the other stars on the slate. He ended up being 20.7% owned and at $10,600 he got me nearly 5x, which I was fine with.
SG: Dellavedova (29.75 FPP) : Again, a high scoring match-up vs the Rockets and Delly remains in the starting lineup after a pretty solid showing in the Bucks last game. At just $3,500 I thought he was an absolute lock on Monday night to at bare minimum reach value. He ended up far exceeding my expectations and, at 11.1% owned, was just the kind of player needed in my GPPs to try and move up in the standings.
SF: Dion Waiters (48.75 FPP) : If they're going to keep his price under $6k and Miami continues to run him out there for over 30 minutes a game, Dion will be an insta-start in my lineups for a while, especially with Tyler Johnson out. I felt he was a must start at $5,700 as his minutes and production continues to improve since coming back from injury. Of course, I didn't expect him to put up almost 50, but I really thought he was a very safe play for that price tag. I was very excited to see he was only 18.5% owned!
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (42.25 FPP): Man oh man. Thanks, Brooklyn, for your efforts on Monday... LMA will be in my lineup any time Leonard is out. That is just facts. At $6,900 he needed just 35 FPP to reach 5x and I figured he was a mortal lock for that tonight vs a Nets team that clearly hates playing defense. Unfortunately this game turned into a blow out and he only played 27 minutes. At 25.8% ownership he was my highest owned player, but I still would've liked for that game to stay close so that he saw some 4th quarter action, darn it.
C: Clint Capela (21.25 FPP): Here is another player who is seeing a little more production as his minutes continue to increase after coming back from injury. To be fair, this was a total "dart" as they announced he would be starting, which always makes me interested and, even more intriguing, Miles Plumlee was starting for the Bucks. My thought was that Capela would be able to out rebound the former Dukie thus giving him a very good chance of hitting value just based on peripheral stats and hopefully find a tip back basket or 5 to get up to 30 FPP. Unfortunately this did not play out the way I'd hoped. He ended with 21 FPP which, at $4,000, was still 5x on his salary but I fully expected him to reach 25+ and at just 8.5% owned I was really pulling for him Monday night.
G: Jrue Holiday (67.5 FPP): As mentioned, the moment that I heard Davis was out I swapped Holiday into as many teams as I could as quickly as I could. His numbers have been down lately, which is likely what helped contribute to him being just 1.9% owned, but I was ok rolling the dice on him going up against Kyrie defense. Needless to say he far out performed my expectations as he put up that magical 9x number we always dream about. Thanks Jrue,
F: Terrence Jones (63.75 FPP): Did someone say 9x? Mr. Jones will see your 9x and raise you one more. At just $6,200 ended up getting 10x, which is what you need in order to take down a GPP. Especially since he was just 10% owned. The fear, of course, was that the Pelicans would get blown out and none of the starters would play their full allotment of minutes or that Alvin Gentry would simply come up with some crazy lineup changes that left everyone scratching their head ... which has been known to occur. I was willing to take that chance, however, as Jones has proven to be a great DFS player when actually given minutes, so he was worth the risk and it certainly paid off.
UTL: Thaddeus Young (19.75 FPP): Well, drats. Thad is a very streaky player that, when going good, is an insta-start for me. After scoring over 30 FPP in 4 of his last 6 games, I thought he was worth a shot at $5,500 vs an average rebounding team such as the Knicks. My theory was he would be able to rebound a lot of the bricks that were put up on both sides, as neither of these teams really jump off the chart when it comes to FG%. Unfortunately he got in foul trouble early and then Myles Turner took over the game, leaving Thad in a comfy position on the bench cheering on his team for long stretches of time. He ended up getting 31 minutes, which is encouraging, but with the foul trouble he was not able to be as aggressive as he usually is thus limiting his fantasy potential.
Oh well. It was fun while it lasted and I was feeling pretty good about my teams with about 100 minutes left for my squad but it just didn't pan out the way I hoped.
Maybe next time.
Thanks for reading. Feel free to leave comments below!
