Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Wednesday 1/11 super early NBA DFS Picks -- and I will check before lock

After yesterday's disaster, I want to point out that I will be checking my lineups tonight before roster lock.  This is just the early lineup I selected last night to lock in some entries into a few events.

Here we go:

PG: Mike Conley - Grizz - $6,900: I like Conley in this spot for a few reasons.  First, Westbrook is not known for his defense, so Conley should have multiple spots to score the ball tonight.  Also, with all of the media grief Conley received for his high dollar contract, wouldn't you think he'd want to stick it to one of the best PG's in the NBA?  Lastly, Westbrook turns the ball over, a lot and Conley is a pretty strong defender so he should be able to "steal" some extra FPPs in that category as well.  He would need 35 to reach 5x and I have a hard time believing he won't reach that value.

SG: Evan Fournier - Magic - $6,000: This may change once I hear if LaVine is playing tonight or not, as I love his spot tonight.  As for Fournier, he's facing a Clippers team that you can attack at the SG/SF position and Fournier has been getting plenty of run since returning from injury.  He has been taking double digits in shots since returning and likes to fill all of the spots in the score sheet.  If LaVine plays I may slide Evan into the SF slot instead.

SF: Robert Covington - Sixers - $6,000: I can't help but worry because, after all, it's Covington and you know that 6 pt night is somewhere in the horizon.  The way he's been playing lately though, he's worth plugging in at this salary.  He continues to thrive with or without Embiid in the lineup so tonight is a solid night to run him out there vs the Knicks and the mess of a franchise they are right now (did I just say the Knicks were the worst franchise in this match up?  Wow).   Carmelo is dealing with a shoulder injury and has never been known as a lock down defender, so I like Cov tonight.

PF: Montrezl Harrell - Rockets - $5,300: I continue to run Montrezl out there and have rarely been disappointed.  He may not flash the 50 upside some may want to look for in the tournament game, but he has been extremely solid lately and continues to hit 5x or 6x each night and I will take that.  Facing Minnesota worries me a bit, as Towns is a big body, but I don't think it'll slow down Harrell enough to fade.

C: Mason Plumlee - Blazers- $6,000: Plumlee had been crushing heading into last night's game and then, for some reason, his minutes were cut way down.  There have been some talking heads that have suggested that he was rested last night so that he'd be at full speed for tonight's match-up vs the Cavs.  Cleveland, reportedly, did not get into Portland until around 5am today so they could be moving a bit slow tonight and that just increases my love of a few Portland guys tonight, as you'll see.

G: Patrick Beverley - Rockets - $5,600: Now this is one I will certainly be keeping my eye on in terms of health tonight.  Beverley has been known to get rested and this is the Rockets 3rd game in 4 nights, so he may get this one off.   If not, he's in a great spot against Ricky Rubio defense, or lack there of, as well as getting the opportunity to mix in some steals and cheap rebounds vs an opposing PG that turns the ball over at a high rate.   I like Beverley to at least reach value tonight, if not crush it ... assuming he plays.

F: Al-Farouq Aminu - Blazers - $5,100: Aminu has been incredible lately and has been reaching 7x or 8x on a nightly basis.  Squaring off with Kevin Love tonight should not slow him down by any means.  Needing someone with a cheaper price point, I am not sure there's anyone better in this range than Aminu.

UTL: Damian Lillard - Blazers - $8,500: This one may change before lock, just because I never enjoy taking 3 players from the same team.  That being said, Lillard has been firing at all cylinders since returning from injury and I do not see him taking the night off against the Cavs tonight.  Lillard too 21 shots in just 31 minutes last night so I'm thinking he, like Plumlee, got a few minutes off last night in preparation for tonight's game.  Kyrie defense is always a spot where you want to target an opposing PG and as mentioned previously, the Cavs had a late night last night so they could be moving a bit slow today and that just increases my love for Lillard more tonight.  

There may be a few changes before roster lock as I'm sure there will be some people out, some people in and something that needs adjusting.

I had been playing Marcus Smart nightly while Bradley is out, but his price has skyrocketed and now I'm not so sure there's much value left.

Take that sentence and just rinse and repeat for Ersan Ilyasova.  I have been plugging him into every lineup for a while now but his price has just reached levels that I am not comfortable playing him at this point.

If LaVine is a go tonight I will likely find a way for him into several lineups and, if he's not, I will be running Wiggins out in a few.

I'm intrigued by Carmelo tonight, as he had a big game following an ejection recently and I can see that happening again tonight vs the Sixers.  Also curious to see how Rose bounces back after the mess from Monday night.  I guess I have to put Brandon Jennings into a few lineups tonight, just in case...