So many changes as the injury reports rolled in tonight. Here is the lineup I ended up going with:
PG: Tyler Johnson - Miami - $5,800: This was the last guy in my lineup and he was plugged in because he was the best available with the cash I had left, in my mind. With everyone back for Miami this pick made me nervous, but I thought people would still be on Josh Richardson and I have liked Tyler coming off the bench and backing up Dragic. The amazing thing is, Dragic got tossed in the 3rd quarter, setting up Johnson for a massive end to the game ... only it didn't work out that way. He finished with 23.75 which was extremely disappointing.
SG: Eric Gordon - Houston - $5,800: Gordon has been playing very good basketball recently and this game had a very high o/u. I had a couple Harden-less stacks of this game and Gordon was one of the first people in my lineup each time. With the 3 point bonus on Draft Kings I will be playing Gordon until his salary gets higher. Tonight he went for 30.25 which wasn't great, but still a tad over 5x
SF: Rudy Gay - Kings - $6,000: Once I got word that he was officially starting I fired him into all of my lineups at that price. Facing a banged up Clippers team I felt this price was a steal for a very solid DFS SF. Obviously there were concerns about him coming off injury, but in GPPS, that was a risk I was willing to take. He ended up with just 28.75 points, falling just short of 5x, but I will take him every night if he stays at that price.
PF: Ersan Ilyasova - Sixers - $6,000: Like I mentioned earlier, I may ride this wave until it crashes. Ersan has been crushing value lately and, in turn, his price continues to head up. He may be reaching a level that makes it hard for me to fit him into my lineups, but for now, he's going to be in all of mine. He ended up getting 36 points tonight for an even 6x on his salary.
C: Greg Monroe - Bucks - $5,800: Basically you can read the above description and just plug in Greg's name. This game was a stud when with the Pistons and it looks like the Bucks have figured that out. I am fearful that he is going to have a 6 pt 8 minute game soon, but I will continue tossing him in my roster as long as he's in the $6k range. Tonight Greg put up 39.25 on DK giving us almost 7x on his salary tonight. Perfect!
G: Isiah Thomas - Celtics - $8,300: Facing a Sixers team that isn't exactly known for their defense and matching up with TJ McConnell, I thought Thomas was a lock for 50+ FPP tonight. Unfortunately that did not happen... not even close. It a very disappointing outing Thomas only gave us 31 tonight. Under 4x for my high dollar guy will never be acceptable.
F: James Johnson - Heat - $5,700: Man do I love this guy's game. Any time a guy can reach value without relying on scoring, he'll have a spot on my team. I thought this was a perfect spot for a massive game from JJ. If I had to do it all over again, I would start him again. I had 80% exposure to him tonight and that came back to sting me a little bit. He ended up with a decent 34.25 FPP night, which was fine for his salary, but I had such high hopes..
UTL: Mike Conley - Grizzlies - $6,600: Until his salary goes up, he's going to be a lock for me every night. One of my favorite players in the league, Conley's price is just too cheap at the moment. You always have to keep an eye out to ensure he's playing, as they like to make sure he stays healthy and give him days off, but if he's starting I will be playing him. Tonight he had a spectacular game both in DFS and real life. Making clutch plays to get the Grizz back into the game and hitting a huge shot at the end of regulation and another in OT Conley ended up giving us 54 FPPs tonight and helped get me over the cashing bubble.
I played several teams tonight and got crushed by having way too much exposure to Jae Crowder in my cash games as he only gave me 14.5 points and essentially taking me out of any chance of making money all by himself.
On the flip side, in retrospect, I had too little exposure to Willie Reed. I have played him pretty much every game since Whiteside has gone out and, other than his dud vs Cousins where I had a super low % of him, he was been great. Tonight I only had him a couple times and he crushed with 47 FPPs on a $4,200 salary. Incredible night for Willie!
I attempted to fade the high dollar guys as IT2 was my highest single player and he burned me. Overall the slate could've gone worse and I have to keep learning and figure out how to get to the next level.
Onto tomorrow.
Friday, January 6, 2017
Friday 1/6/2016 NBA DFS Early picks
Well, another afternoon of really needing more information before giving any real selections. There are a lot of players I like tonight but so much depends on the health of the Cavs players as well as Klay Thompson, who was a lock and load guy before his questionable tag this afternoon.
Rather than giving you a lineup, since I don't have one yet, I'll just give you some guys I like tonight:
PG: Isiah Thomas - Celtics - $8,300: Thomas has been one of the highest producing fantasy sports players terms of point per dollar and I don't look for him to slow down tonight. If Embiid misses tonight there really will not be any defensive presence in the middle to slow down IT2's drives and I look for him to have a big game tonight. The only worry I have is a blowout and him not getting much run in the 4th Q
SG: Sean Kilpatrick - Nets - $5,300: There are a few factors that could change this one. Who starts for Cleveland? Will Kilpatrick start or come off the bench? If he comes off the bench, and 1 or 2 of the big three sit tonight, I love this pick. This is easily the one that could change as the night goes on and more value appears, so keep an eye on injury reports and starting lineups.
PF: Ersan Ilyasova - Sixers - $6,000: His price keeps going up but, if Embiid is out, I think Ersan is in another good position here to crush value. He has been a plug and play for a week or so now and you can fully expect somewhere in the 30 point FPP range each time he takes the court. If Embiid is out Ersan will be on every team I field tonight.
C: Jahlil Okafor - Sixers - $4,400: Again, this one is based on if Embiid plays or sits. If he is out Okafor's usage increases and makes him worth owning. He isn't flashy and you will likely have to watch the game log with your hands over your eyes as it won't be pretty but he certainly has a chance of crushing value tonight.
C: Montrezl Harrell - Rockets - $5,500: Nene played last night so this pick is simply based on the fact that Harrell's minutes should be large and secure tonight. He is a 20-25 pt guy on a normal night and I think he has a legit chance of reaching 35+ with minutes tonight vs Orlando. If he gets the minutes and can out rebound Bioymbo, look for Harrell to have a big night.
SF: James Johnson - Heat - $5,700: Another player that will be in a huge portion of my lineups tonight. Johnson was showing flashes of greatness before missing some time last week but is now back and ready to be unleashed. He only played 25 minutes in his last game and still put up 36 FPPs. Look for his minutes to increase tonight and giving him the chance for a big game.
PG: Goran Dragic - Heat - $7,400: Guards tend to dominate vs the Lakers and Dragic is in prime position to do the same tonight. The Lakers had a hard fought games against the Blazers last night and Goran could absolutely take advantage of them being a step slower. I actually love a stack in this game and will probably have a lot of players from here.
Rather than giving you a lineup, since I don't have one yet, I'll just give you some guys I like tonight:
PG: Isiah Thomas - Celtics - $8,300: Thomas has been one of the highest producing fantasy sports players terms of point per dollar and I don't look for him to slow down tonight. If Embiid misses tonight there really will not be any defensive presence in the middle to slow down IT2's drives and I look for him to have a big game tonight. The only worry I have is a blowout and him not getting much run in the 4th Q
SG: Sean Kilpatrick - Nets - $5,300: There are a few factors that could change this one. Who starts for Cleveland? Will Kilpatrick start or come off the bench? If he comes off the bench, and 1 or 2 of the big three sit tonight, I love this pick. This is easily the one that could change as the night goes on and more value appears, so keep an eye on injury reports and starting lineups.
PF: Ersan Ilyasova - Sixers - $6,000: His price keeps going up but, if Embiid is out, I think Ersan is in another good position here to crush value. He has been a plug and play for a week or so now and you can fully expect somewhere in the 30 point FPP range each time he takes the court. If Embiid is out Ersan will be on every team I field tonight.
C: Jahlil Okafor - Sixers - $4,400: Again, this one is based on if Embiid plays or sits. If he is out Okafor's usage increases and makes him worth owning. He isn't flashy and you will likely have to watch the game log with your hands over your eyes as it won't be pretty but he certainly has a chance of crushing value tonight.
C: Montrezl Harrell - Rockets - $5,500: Nene played last night so this pick is simply based on the fact that Harrell's minutes should be large and secure tonight. He is a 20-25 pt guy on a normal night and I think he has a legit chance of reaching 35+ with minutes tonight vs Orlando. If he gets the minutes and can out rebound Bioymbo, look for Harrell to have a big night.
SF: James Johnson - Heat - $5,700: Another player that will be in a huge portion of my lineups tonight. Johnson was showing flashes of greatness before missing some time last week but is now back and ready to be unleashed. He only played 25 minutes in his last game and still put up 36 FPPs. Look for his minutes to increase tonight and giving him the chance for a big game.
PG: Goran Dragic - Heat - $7,400: Guards tend to dominate vs the Lakers and Dragic is in prime position to do the same tonight. The Lakers had a hard fought games against the Blazers last night and Goran could absolutely take advantage of them being a step slower. I actually love a stack in this game and will probably have a lot of players from here.
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