Saturday, February 4, 2017

Early morning thoughts on NBA DFS

What a frustrating night of DFS.

I can sum it up pretty quickly:

a) Jimmy Butler ruined a good share of my lineups right off the bat.
b) I picked the wrong PG in Sacramento (Collison did fine but Lawson was the pick.  A lot of people took both and I clearly should've considered the same).
c) I picked the wrong SF in Phoenix (went with Chriss instead of TJ Warren)
d) I didn't have nearly enough Jokic.  I had a few shares of him but was afraid to fire him back into my lineups coming back from injury last night.
e) Mudiay tanked.
f) RHJ struggled.
g) LeVert got the start and tons of minutes but put up a dud.
h) Myles Turner continues to make my scratch my head at why he's not dominating games

That's enough, you get my point.    Onward and upward.

Early thoughts on tonight's games:

I will likely be playing a lot of cash games tonight while I tinker with my tournament strategy.

A quick look at the schedule has me noticing a couple things that I will be factoring into my roster creations today.

No team that plays today has a game tomorrow.
Denver is on a B2B and this is their 4th game in 5 nights.  There are a billion questions here.  Will Jokic get a full allotment of minutes after just returning from injury?  Which of the Nuggets' injured players will return tonight?   Want a recipe for a blowout?  I have one for you:  a banged up Nuggets team that likes to run up and down the court will play @ San Antonio tonight.   This one could get out of hand quickly.
Orlando is on a B2B and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights.  How will that effect Evan Fournier, who is coming back from injury?
Detroit is on a B2B and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights.  With Ish Smith continuing to see an increase in minutes, is this a spot to fire him into my few GPP lineups?
Indiana is on a B2B and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights.  So both sides of the ball will be a bit tired in this game.  This may make for a sloppy offensive game so I may look at getting someone like Drummond that could grab all of the rebounds after each shot clanks off the iron.  He has only played 29 and 26 minutes in each of the last two games, so he shouldn't be overly exhausted tonight.
Memphis in on a B2B and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights.  This is one where I'll have to pay attention close to roster lock.  I would not be surprised to see one of Gasol, Conley or Z-Bo sitting this game out.
Minnesota is on a B2B and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights.  Not super concerned about this one, as they are a pretty young team .. but if you're deciding on a roster spot between two players and one of them is playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights and traveled all 3 games you may want to factor that in.
Milwaukee is on a B2B and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights.  Another young team that this shouldn't make much of a difference but worth noting.  The big thing for the Bucks will be who Kidd decides to run out there at the C position.  If Henson gets another start I will be locking him in, though I have to believe that Monroe is a better match up vs the up and down pace of the Suns.
Phoenix is on a B2B and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights. Speaking of the Suns, they also are playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights.  I would think this will slow Chandler down just a little thus making me like whomever Milwaukee starts at center even more.
Golden State is playing their 3rd in 4 nights.  Honestly, this doesn't matter much.  The starters usually are rested throughout the game and they do not play tomorrow, but I still wanted to make note.
Philadelphis is playing their 3rd in 4 nights.  Is Embiid going to give it a run tonight or shall we throw Ilyasova out there again tonight?
Sacramento is on the back end of a B2B.  Again, doesn't matter a huge amount.  Boogie has proven in the past that he's just fine on B2B games and he's the biggest cog in this game.  Lawson and Collison are both in play again tonight as well as Matt Barnes assuming Temple and Afflalo are out again for this one.


 Notable things to look for tonight

Will Rose play for the Knicks?  Brandon Jennings price continues to rise but he has been very solid while starting for the injured Rose.   Will Hernangomez continue to get minutes?  He has produced each time he's been given the chance, which is why I'm still puzzled at him getting 4 minutes in a quadruple over time game earlier in the week.   Is Porzingis back to game form?  He looked like it in their last outing so I will giving him a shot tonight.

Who draws the start at C for Milwaukee?

Will the Magic rest Fournier tonight and force me to play Payton?

Will Jokic start tonight and, if so, will he be on any minutes restriction?

Dwight Howard revenge game twice in one week?

 Does Embiid play tonight or is another Okafor/Ilyasova night?

How will Frank Kaminsky handle getting the start at C tonight vs the Jazz?

Early players I am high on:

LeBron James:   All eyes are on LeBron now as he has called out his team, his GM and Charles Barkley.   As a player who loves the spotlight, this is a time for LeBron to show what he can do on the court to shut up all of the noise going on off the court.   Factor in the fact that he's playing in Madison Square Garden tonight and I fully expect something big.

Rudy Gobert:  Bigs vs the Hornets was "a thing" anyway, but with Kaminsky starting at the 5 I just do not see anyone that will be able to out rebound Gobert.  I could see a 20/20 night in the making for him this evening.

Dwight Howard:  Howard proved earlier in the week that he can still get motivated to show flashes of his former self, and he loves sticking it to his old teams.  The Hawks face the Magic tonight and I expect Dwight to come out ready to play tonight.

Tim Hardaway Jr: Not only am I interested in Tim because of his breakout game earlier in the week vs the Rockets, but at his price he is a solid start if he draws the start.  His matchup tonight vs the Magic isn't nearly as enticing as his previous one vs Houston, but I will still have my fair share of him tonight if he starts.

James Johnson: Everyone is starting to get healthy for Miami so I think Johnson will go overlooked on tonight's slate.  In his last four games he has put up 31.5, 39, 41.5 and 33.5 DK points and I do not see that slowing down tonight vs the undermanned 76ers team.

Also in play for me are Marcin Gortat, Porzingis, Hernangomez and Goran Dragic.