Monday, January 9, 2017

Monday 1/9 NBA DFS Early day picks

Oh baby.... a 3 game slate always makes things interesting...

So many people with so little variance.  This should be an interesting, and low volume, night for me.

Anyway, onto my picks:

PG: Russell Westbrook - $13,000 - OKC: Yup, you read that right.  His salary has gotten out of control.  I may end up fading him in tournaments and only playing him in cash, but right now I have him in both.  The Bulls ranked near the bottom of the NBA in guarding the PG position with Rondo and that has actually somehow gotten worse since MCW took over, believe it or not.  Jimmy Butler has been downgraded to questionable today, which means this game should stay close and Westbrook should get a big chunk of minutes.  He's been going crazy the last few games and I intend on riding that train for another game.

SG: Dwayne Wade - $6,200 - Bulls: Again, this is an "if Butler sits" lock for me.  Without Butler you have to look for Wade to take over the offense for the Bulls.  They have already announced that Wade will play tonight and likely rest tomorrow, so this is a must start spot for him, in my opinion.  I am a little afraid of Oladipo's defense, but I still think Wade gets his numbers tonight and is just one of three Bulls I'm using in my early day lineups.

SF: Doug McDermott - $4,200 - Bulls: With or without Butler, I'm playing Doug tonight.  His minutes are solidified in the rotation and he is getting more and more comfortable with his shot.  Once an offensive weapon like McDermott gets comfortable and allows the game to slow down for him a bit he has the ability to score in waves.   Right now things are going well for Doug and I plan on riding this wave out.

PF: Kristaps Porzingis - $7.400 - Knicks: The over/under on this game is large and the young phenom looks to be back and at full speed again after an injury scare.  With Carmelo battling a shoulder injury I look for Porzingis to take on the burden of scoring for this team.  He has flashed 50-60 point upside and, when healthy, his basement is still pretty solid.  I like him tonight in an up and down game vs the Pelicans.

C: Donatas Motiejunas - $3,000 - Pelicans: 100% pure tournament pick as we literally know nothing about his spot in the rotation.   He played 20 minutes in his first game of the season and performed admirably, but there is no data that says he will get that much run again tonight.   He will not be in my cash game lineups, but I have to take a shot in getting him into a few tournament spots.

G: Michael Carter-Williams - $4,600 - Bulls: This pick scares me.  Grant's minutes have been creeping up and he actually out minute'd MCW in the last game.  That being said, I am still going to run Carter-Williams out there in my tournament lineups as I feel he has the highest fantasy upside and his price is still reasonable.   In an up tempo game MCW should thrive, so here's to hoping he gets 25+ minutes tonight vs OKC.

F: Dirk Nowitzki - $5,200 - Mavericks: Is he the Dirk of old?  Of course not.  However, Dirk has been creeping up in minutes and actually played 30 in Dallas' last game.  He is taking double digit shot attempts and has scored 20+ fantasy points his last three games.  Again, a tournament option only for me tonight, but well worth the risk of at least reaching value with the chance of going over a bit.

UTL: Steven Adams - $6,000 - Thunder: I am not sure there is a player on this slate more than I like Adams tonight.  He has been consistently exceed value recently yet continues to go over-looked in most lineups.  Tonight I expect him to be higher owned simply because the slate is so small, but I will still have him in the majority of my lineups this evening.


I also like: Tyreke Evans, Buddy Heild, JJ Barea and a few others tonight for low dollar tournament punts.

The big news will be whether or not Jimmy Butler plays, so I'll be holding my lock button until we hear that news.

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